Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for next week's RBA policy meeting.
"The AUD will be focused on the RBA meeting and the Federal budget in the coming week. The market remains 63% priced for the RBA to cut its cash rate. The theory that has the market excited about the RBA’s meeting next week is that the government will table its budget on the same day, but in the evening and after the RBA meeting...
We continue to think the RBA would prefer to wait until after seeing the budget (we do not think it will get any scoops) as well as further data to confirm the extent of the damage to growth done by the Victoria lockdown," CACIB notes.
"If the RBA were to stay on hold in October, we would see it as another opportunity to sell AUD/CAD or another AUD cross as we would expect more easing to still be on its way," CACIB adds.