ING Research discusses its expectations for this week's ECB policy meeting on Thursday.
"The main event of the week is the July ECB meeting on Thursday. Following the ECB strategic review and the shift in the inflation target from ‘below, but close to 2%’ to ‘2%’ with a commitment to symmetry, the new strategy can be interpreted as either a formalisation of what it has been doing over the last few years anyway or a step towards more dovishness, as 2% implies a more resolute effort," ING notes.
"This means the distribution of probabilities is skewed to lower EUR/USD this week. No change in the ECB bias is unlikely to be enough to send the euro higher. At the same time, any ECB shift towards the dovish interpretation of the strategic review would underscore the recent downward EUR/USD trend," ING adds.