ING examines the near-term dynamics and future prospects for EUR/GBP, considering influences such as recent pessimistic UK house price data, upcoming UK economic releases, and the broader trajectory of the Bank of England's policy. ING foresees range-trading in the short term before a potential upward movement towards the end of the year.

Key Points:

• Pessimism in UK Housing Market: The RICS UK house price data survey has displayed the most pessimism over UK house prices since early 2009. This could start affecting UK consumer confidence and spending, and potentially pressure the pricing of the Bank of England's tightening cycle.
• Near-Term Range Trading for EUR/GBP: The currency pair seems content to trace out a range between 0.8600 and 0.8650 for the time being.
• Upcoming Catalysts: Next week's release of UK earnings data, as well as July CPI, will be critical factors in shaping the next phase of the currency story.
• Upside Bias Towards Year-End: ING maintains an optimistic view for EUR/GBP, targeting the 0.88 area for later in the year.

Summary:

ING's insights into the EUR/GBP currency pair emphasize a short-term period of stability, influenced by factors such as the UK's housing market and forthcoming economic data. However, looking further ahead, the bank anticipates a rise towards the 0.88 mark. Investors should be mindful of the upcoming releases of UK earnings and inflation data, as these could act as catalysts in determining the currency pair's direction into the year-end.