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Apr 28 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-This EUR/USD Drop Could Extend Far Below Parity

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 28 - 05:40 AM

The current EUR/USD drop which is being opposed by speculators could run deep below parity.

Until recently a move towards parity was totally unexpected, let alone a move below this point, which has great importance for anyone trading or trying to hedge for future movement. nL2N2WQ0NS

In the most recent Reuters poll conducted on April 6 no one saw the pair below 1.0500 within the next 12 months and the median expectation predicted a rise to 1.1400.

On April 6 EUR/USD traded in a range between 1.0874-1.0938, having fallen from 1.1185 on March 31.
On April 28 EUR/USD fell to 1.0481 EBS, below the low point predicted by anyone polled by Reuters.

In March traders doubled bets EUR/USD would rise and while demand for insurance to cover the risk of bigger movement is costing more, it continues to reflect a lack of hedging for the eventuality.
Although benchmark vol has risen 7.5 to 9.5 in April it is well below March's 12.5 peak.

Unexpected moves that traders are badly prepared for go far.
Should EUR/USD break 1.0072, which is a 76.4% retracement of the rise from 2000's record low to 2008's all-time high, the pair could reach 0.8228.
Related nL2N2WQ0P5

For more click on FXBUZ

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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