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Jul 11 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 11 - 12:00 AM

EUR/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW Room for EUR to test 1.1285 but a move beyond 1.1310 is not expected. EUR surged during NY hours and took out a couple of strong resistance levels with ease. While the advance appears to be running ahead of itself, there is room for EUR to test 1.1285. At this stage, a move beyond 1.1310 is not expected. Support is at 1.1225 followed by 1.1200. The latter level is a solid support now and is unlikely to come into the picture.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways. The ‘downside bias’ in EUR highlighted on Monday (08 Jul, spot at 1.1225) has fizzled out as the strong overnight rebound took out the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1255 (high of 1.1263). The price action was not exactly surprising as we noted yesterday (10 Jul, spot at 1.1200) that “downward momentum remains lackluster” and the weakness in EUR “lacks urgency”. From here, EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1310.

GBP/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW GBP could extend its overnight gains but a break of 1.2550 is unlikely. Instead of “weaken further”, GBP rebounded strongly to an overnight high of 1.2521. The recent weakness appears to have stabilized and a short-term bottom is likely in place. That said, the current GBP strength is viewed as a ‘corrective recovery’ and it is too early to expect a sustained up-move. From here, GBP could extend its overnight gain but the prospect for a break of the strong 1.2550 resistance is not high. On the downside, 1.2465 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 1.2485).


1-3 WEEKS VIEW A NY close below 1.2440 would indicate GBP could weaken further to 1.2350. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. After yesterday’s rebound, the prospect for further weakness has diminished but only break of 1.2550 would indicate downward pressure has eased.

The relatively strong decline in GBP yesterday that tested the minor support at 1.2440 was not exactly expected (low of 1.2439). Our view from Monday (08 Jul, spot at 1.2645) was that while GBP is “under pressure”, the “the odds for a fresh year-to-date low are not high”. Shorter-term indicators are oversold and from here, we prefer to wait for a NY close below 1.2440 before adopting a more negative stance. Looking ahead, if GBP were to close below 1.2440 in NY, it would indicate that it could weaken further to 1. 2350. All in, the downward pressure in GBP is deemed as intact until it can move above 1.2550 (strong resistance was at 1.2590 yesterday).

AUD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW AUD is likely to trade at a higher range of 0.6935/0.6985. While our view that “a break of 0.6900 is unlikely” was not wrong (low of 0.6911), the subsequent strong overnight rebound was not exactly expected. The advance is running ahead of itself even though a move above the overnight high of 0.6969 would not be surprising. That said, any AUD strength is viewed as higher 0.6935/0.6985 range (a sustained rise beyond 0.6985 is not expected).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade with a downside bias towards 0.6880. For now, we hold the same view as yesterday (see reproduced update below).

Our view from Monday (08 Jul, 0.6985) was for AUD to trade sideways within a 0.6920/0.7030 range. The rapid pace of which AUD tested the bottom of the range (overnight low of 0.6920) was not exactly expected. Downward pressure has increased quickly and from here, AUD is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards the strong support at 0.6880. At this stage, the June’s low of 0.6832 is likely ‘safe’. All in, AUD is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above the strong resistance at 0.6990.

NZD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is expected to consolidate its gains and trade sideways, likely within a 06630/0.6675 range. The strong overnight surge that hit an overnight high of 0.6657 came as a surprise. While NZD could edge above the overnight high, a sustained advance is not expected. Overall, NZD is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways at these higher levels, expected to be within a 0.6630/0.6675 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways for a period. We indicated yesterday that NZD is likely to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards 0.6560. NZD subsequently briefly dipped to 0.6567 before staging a robust rebound and came close to taking out the 0.6560 ‘strong resistance’. The price action suggests that NZD could have made a short-term bottom at 0.6567. The outlook from here is not very clear and NZD could trade sideways between 0.6610 and 0.6710 for a period of time.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary

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