EUR/CHF has rallied to the 200-DMA at 1.1450, and a break will send a rather curious signal that risk appetite is rallying when investors should be seeking safety.
With that in mind, a good number of traders should and probably will be willing to sell an initial test of the 200-DMA.
EUR/CHF was last briefly above the 200-DMA in July 2018 and last sustained a rise over in April/May 2018.
The high for the last five months is 1.1502.
Non-spec traders surely must sell to hedge here, while specs who pick a top can do so cheaply with stops in the low 1.15s.
Against the backdrop of a global slowing in economic activity, betting against a further CHF drop seems prudent.
That said, it's clear from broader FX trading, stocks and key commodities that risk appetite is surprisingly robust.
Should EUR/CHF break higher and close over the 55-WMA at 1.1510, 1.1595/1.1692, 50 and 61.8 percent retracements of last year's fall are easily achievable.