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Aug 15 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Despite Upbeat Data AUD/USD Longs Can't Achieve Lift-Off
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 15 - 01:10 PM

AUD/USD longs got a reprieve today but are probably still wondering what is needed for sustained gains.
Upbeat Australian and U.S. data results eased some recession concerns, which steepened the U.S. 2s-10s curve, but AUD/USD remains range bound.
Australian employment was significantly above estimates but the unemployment rate held steady nL4N25A14L.
Headline U.S. July retail sales also surprised to the topside as did the retail control group nLNSFJEF8Y.
The upbeat data failed to induce rallies in bond yields or commodities while equity market gains seem tentative.
Yields in 10-year U.S. and Australian debt instead hit new lows as did German 10-year yields after ECB stimulus news hit the wires .
Investors appear reluctant to move into riskier assets as U.S.-Sino as well as Japan-South Korea trade tensions linger and while political protests in Hong Kong continue.
Asian emerging market currencies remain heavy versus the greenback while China's yuan struggles to rally against to the dollar.
Investor's reluctance to place bets in the Asian region likely factor into tempering AUD/USD gains.
For now AUD/USD holds in the 0.6730/0.6825 range.
It seems only a major risk-on catalyst will be able to induce a break of 0.6820/35 resistance.
If that break fails to materialize 2019'2 low or lower levels are likely.

chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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