Goldman Sachs Research flags a scope for a EUR tactical recovery over the coming week.

"We think the scale of the sell-off over the past month specifically makes it important to differentiate the longer-term challenges from the tactical outlook, where we are wary of extrapolating the move lower in EUR/USD. Part of this is due to an alignment of positive recent drivers on the Dollar side of the equation that look more difficult to sustain at the same pace going forward," GS notes.

"While scrutiny on fiscal fundamentals is currently centred on France and the Euro, other major currencies (Dollar, Yen, and Sterling included) have all faced at least bouts of similar pressures at some point over the past year. Together, this balance of factors implies some scope for a stabilisation and a tactical recovery in the broad Euro in the weeks ahead, even if longer-term challenges remain," GS adds.

Dollar bulls have regained control as a combination of heightened geopolitical tensions, concerns over European sovereign debt, and a heavy week of event risk boosts demand for the greenback.

Investors face a packed week of event risk, with U.S. corporate earnings, Wednesday's CPI report and remarks from several officials, including Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and potentially BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Stronger-than-expected inflation data and higher oil prices could bolster expectations for additional Fed tightening, providing further support for USD/JPY.

Against a backdrop of broad-based dollar strength and USD/JPY's break above its 200-day moving average at 158.55, focus is shifting toward the nearby Ichimoku cloud top, the Sept. 24 high at 159.03 and the key psychological 160 level, where Japanese exporter offers are expected to emerge. Further gains could also trigger the capitulation of speculative shorts established on expectations of additional BOJ rate hikes and renewed intervention, adding fuel to any upside extension in USD/JPY.

Sustained USD/JPY strength would raise intervention and BOJ response risks, but subdued implied volatility suggests markets remain complacent despite past interventions often occurring around major policy and international meetings, including this week's IMF and G20 gatherings. Comments from BOJ Governor Ueda could provide important policy signals, with any failure to deliver a sufficiently hawkish message posing a notable risk to yen bulls and potentially encouraging a fresh leg higher in USD/JPY.
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research discusses AUD outlook for the week.

"This week's Australian releases may matter more for other AUD crosses, while the outright direction of AUD/USD is still likely to be determined offshore.

Domestically, the labour market report is likely to be the most important release. We expect 15k growth in employment and a 4.6% unemployment rate. Stronger-than-expected employment or a stabilisation in the unemployment rate would reinforce expectations that policy may need to become more restrictive and would therefore support the AUD through the rates channel. Conversely, a softer labour market report would likely see some November tightening expectations priced out further, particularly given recent signs that activity is slowing," ANZ notes.

"The RBA minutes are likely to be scrutinised for signs that September's hike was not a one-off adjustment. Markets will focus on the Board's assessment of inflation persistence, energy-price risks and spare capacity in the economy," ANZ adds.

Sterling's forward path looks increasingly captive to an event-heavy calendar, with entrenched positioning leaving GBP/USD confined to a modest 1.3180–1.3280 range in recent sessions.

Brief reactions to geopolitical news in the Middle East have been fleeting, demonstrating a lack of conviction to break out of this established channel. The market seems to be in a holding pattern, with traders hovering around 1.3200-1.3280, perhaps reflecting a gamma trading environment ahead of significant UK economic releases.

The upcoming GDP and output data on October 15, followed by UK CPI on October 21, may provide crucial insights into the health of the UK economy and the likely trajectory of BoE monetary policy. These data points will set the stage for the Autumn Budget on October 28, where Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey face the challenge of presenting a budget that addresses fiscal concerns without exacerbating them.

Adding complexity to the GBP/USD landscape is Burnham's increasing rhetoric on Brexit, particularly discussions surrounding alleged Russian interference and the prospect of closer ties with the EU.

Should negative sentiment gain traction, and the Autumn Budget disappoint, it could accelerate a decline toward 2026 lows at 1.3140 and possibly November 2025 lows near 1.30, underscoring the fragile state of the pound amid a dynamic political and economic backdrop.
GBP$ Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Societe Generale Research likes short EUR exposure vs AUD and NZD.

"The week's main non-geopolitical event comes on Wednesday with the release of US CPI. If we see a pickup in core inflation to 2.5% (the market consensus), there will be little chance of any shift in market expectations: no rate hike this month, but a very strong chance of one in December and another in Q1," SocGen notes.

"Watching EUR/AUD, which bounced after drifting below 1.64 this morning. There are plenty of arguments for shorting European currencies against the AUD (and the NZD)," SocGen adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the US September CPI report due on Wednesday.

"Core CPI likely slowed to 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in September after August's stronger reading, with headline CPI spiking by 0.6% due to higher gas prices. We estimate core PCE inflation at 0.22% m/m and 3.0% y/y, a pace still above the Fed's target but not necessarily strong enough to alter near-term policy expectations," BofA notes.

"However, risks are tilted modestly to the upside from airfares, wireless service pricing, and AI-related demand for electronics. A stronger 0.3% m/m core CPI print would put October back in play," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD rallied to 1.1217 in Asia, sellers emerged, the pair then turned lower

• NY opened near 1.1175, a fresh session low, the pair was down -0.23%

• USD buying, US yield gains weighed on the pair

• Wider German-French yield spreads added weight

• Gains in oil & drops in gold , silver also weighed on EUR/USD

• Techs are bearish; pair is below the 10-DMA, RSIs indicate downward momentum

• Widening Bolli bands, consolidation of drop from Sep. 25 high add to bear signs
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD gapped down to open the week then traded 0.6969-0.6995 overnight

• An 8-session high traded before the pair fell and then turned lower

• NY opened near 0.6970, AUD/UDS traded down -0.15% in early NY action

• USD, US yield gains & USD/CNH's lift off its low weighed on AUD/USD

• Drops in gold and silver helped put additional weight on the pair

• AUD/USD's price action has daily charts suggesting the recent rally is near an end

• A daily gravestone doji formed and daily RSI diverged on the earlier high

• A bear pennant continuation pattern is in place on daily charts, reinforces bear signs

• Rising monthly RSI, bull pennant on monthly chart gives bulls some comfort
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Crude oil rises from around $102pb toward $106 pb on Monday

• EUR/USD sinks from 1.1217 to 1.1185 EBS

• The 2026 low at 1.1161 is nearby

• Mid-point 1.0125-1.0208 rise (Feb 2025-Jan 2026) is 1.1105

• The 200-WMA is 1.1102

• Target for a break below 1.1105 is 1.0873

• USD's rise could pressure carry trades

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Overall bias remains on the upside as USD/JPY usually climbs in October

• The 14-day momentum reading is positive, highlighting the bullish bias, 160 a target

• USD/JPY has seen a 158.08-158.47 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• Spot is trading within the daily cloud, that currently spans the 157.22-159.02 region

• Buy stops likely clustered above the cloud top are vulnerable, could get hit

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 24 pip range thus far Monday; 0.6971-0.6995

• 0.6995 is highest level since Sept 30 (0.6995 was also the high that day)

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose 55% to 98,588 contracts in week to Oct 6

• 98,588 contracts is largest net AUD short position since August 2025

• Minutes from September's RBA meeting will be published on Tuesday

• Australia's bond market notches record sales in 2026, data from CBA shows

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3261, its highest level since Oct 7

• Ascent aided by lower oil prices (UK is a net energy importer)

• Asian session high was 1.3252. Friday's range was 1.3206-1.3250

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 7% to 97,611 contracts in week to Oct 5

• 97,611 contracts is largest net GBP short position since June

• The Guardian-Burnham to urge MPs to embrace closer ties with EU

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders added 5 billion euros to net short in week to Oct 9

• Net speculative position short rose from $9 bln to $14bln

• EUR/USD traded 1.1161-1.1276 EBS week to Oct 9

• On Monday Oct 12 EUR/USD range is 1.1185-1.1217 EBS

• The larger short heightns the chance of a reversal

• Drop currently stretched at base 20-week Bollinger bands

•
EURUSD and betting

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD +0.1% Mon as energy supply anxiety abates slightly, WTI down 1.9%

• EUR down cumulative 4.3% from Aug 21 1.1711 high, downtrend remains intact

• Pair targets 1.1065 17-month low, break opens door for move towards 1.0733

• Trump pressures Ukraine towards accepting energy ceasefire with Russia

• Houthis Riyadh airport attack has Trump considering Saudi military support

• Markets remain cautious on FR debt problems despite spending cut promises

• Euro zone Aug industrial production due Thur, prior -0.1% m/m, flat y/y

• Range Asia 1.1185-1.1217, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD perks up in Asia, gains 0.1% after closing unchanged on Friday

• Better risk sentiment boosts; Wall St futures gain on US-Russia diesel deal

• Trump's Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire announcement boosts oil supply hopes

• US crude -1.8% but traders wary of escalating Middle East tensions

• This week's busy data and central bank calendar key for markets

• US inflation, UK Aug GDP, industrial & manufacturing output, trade due

• Fed Chair Warsh fireside chat on Fri at IMF/World bank meeting eyed

• BoE officials Sarah Breeden, Megan Greene, Huw Pill, Gov Andrew Bailey speak

• Resistance 1.3275-85, 1.3300-10; support 1.3220-25, 1.3185-90

• Friday range 1.3206-1.3250, Asia 1.3220-1.3252
UK:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Amara Minerals rise as much as 20% to A$0.006, hitting their highest level since September 11

• Stock logs its biggest intraday pct gain since October 1

• The gold explorer reports further high-grade drilling results from its Apollo gold project in central Victoria

• Company says the latest drilling supports the potential for a maiden mineral resource estimate at the project

• YTD, stock down 25%, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY down 0.15% in Asia as 158.40-50 resistance continues to cap rallies

• Pair had closed 0.3% higher on Friday after trading in a 157.77-158.43 range

• Was supported by recovery in US short-term yields; 2-yr closed 3.5bps higher

• Traders eye US-Russia diesel deal, weekend Middle East conflict escalation

• Trump announces Ukraine energy ceasefire with Russia, surprising Zelenskiy

• Japanese markets closed Mon; above 158.50-55 opens 159.00

• Support 158.00-05, 157.75-80
US Umich present v future:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of QMines Ltd rise as much as 6.7% to A$0.08, their biggest intraday pct gain since September 29

• Gold explorer finds new copper sulphides at its Mount Chalmers project in Queensland, Australia

• QMI says that follow-up drilling is underway, and assays are expected in late-October

• YTD stock up 64.6%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.1% Mon as Middle East instability weighs on risk sentiment

• Pair pushing implied lower hourly Bollinger band, likely oversold short term

• Major support zone near 0.5580 intact, clear break below would excite bears

• Futures pricing currently implies 59.5% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• Trump applying pressure in attempt to force Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire

• Houthis Riyadh airport attack has Trump considering joining Saudi response

• Range NZ 0.5601-09, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Oct mtd in wake of consistent weekly declines throughout Sep

• Clean break below 0.6929 52-WMA may signal resumption of fall toward 0.6660

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be closely scrutinized

• AU Sep employment due Thur, Reuters poll: +20.0k jobs, 4.6% unemployment

• Trump weighs joining Saudi retaliation after Houthis attack Riyadh airport

• U.K.'s Burnham joins Trump in calling for Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire

• Range Asia 0.6976-80 support 0.6929 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net G10 spec long in Sept 30-Oct 6 IMM period; $IDX +0.41%

• USD remained bid into new IMM period on European fiscal & Mideast (oil)concerns

• EUR$ -0.76%, specs -36.1k contracts now -99.3k; French fiscal concerns weigh on EUR

• $JPY +0.54%, specs +6.9k contracts now +62.3k; higher US yields add to USD haven status

• GBP$ +0.35%. specs -6.5k contracts now -97.6k; BoE a high yielder tempers GBP weakness

• $CAD +0.13%, specs -11.5k contracts now -90.2k; US-CA trade tumult, higher Fed policy view

• AUD$ -0.05%, specs -35.3k contracts now -98.6k; RBA highest yielding g7 economy no aid for bulls

IMM Position Table:


Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ steady at 1.3230 in NorAm afternoon trade; NorAm range 1.3235-1.3206

• Support remains firm near 1.32 withstanding several tests recently

• European fiscal ructions, geopolitical uncertainties continue to contribute to volatility

• Test of UK fiscal chops for UK leadership coming at October 28 UK Autumn Budget

• UK August GDP, o/p data on Oct 15 next wk, UK employment and CPI OCT 20-21 in focus

• GBP$ supt 1.3206 Friday low, 1.3140 2026 low on June 24, 1.3108 falling lwr 30-d Bolli

• Res 1.3246 daily conversion line, 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3370 38.2% Fib of 1.3675-1.3181

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1210 after 1.1243 traded overnight, drop then extended

• USD, US yield & oil gains weighed down EUR/USD

• The pair fell despite rallies in gold, silver and stocks; 1.1188 traded

• EUR/USD held near that low despite a softening in US dollar & yields

• The pair was down -0.16% in the afternoon and was also lower for the week

• Techs are bearish; RSIs, widening Bolli bands indicate downward momentum

• Daily inverted hammer, hold below the 10-DMA reinforce bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs on EUR/USD and USD/JPY outlook.

"The USD rally has been built on three legs – rate differentials, relative equity/tech outperformance, and Brent back above $100 – but only energy and AI look structural; Fed pricing is the shaky one, and we're the most dovish in G10 (vs mkt pricing) there alongside the BoE. All three drivers have been mean-reverting this year so we think EUR may have run a little ahead of fundamentals in the near term and USDJPY for example, has structural downside asymmetry, so it's a bit early to press USD strength here...," GS notes.

"Overall, yes, you have some of those fundamental supports, but it is a fairly mean reverting environment and it's also very difficult to rule out some of the USD negative risks that we saw throughout the year on the fiscal front, on the policy uncertainty front," GS adds.