• The recent bearish weekly reversal in USD/CAD suggests topside exhaustion

• Coincides with levels that have marked an interim top over the last 2yrs

• With positioning via CFTC showing a near record short in CAD

• As well as a BoC that is priced to cut rates by 75bps in the next 3 meetings

• The bar has been raised for further CAD weakness

• In turn, the door is open for a test of range lows at 1.36

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