Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for the RBA September-7 policy meeting.
?We expect the RBA to continuing pointing to 2024 as the likely time period for raising rates and to delay its tapering of asset purchases from September to November. Market opinions are divided on whether or not the RBA will delay its taper, so it will be a binary event for the AUD," CACIB notes.
"In the event that the RBA holds off tapering, we think that Governor Philip Lowe will continue to sound upbeat and point to the potential for tapering in November, so the AUD will be a buy on the dip. If the RBA were to taper, this would lead to a jump in the AUD with the jump’s sustainability being dependent on the how soon the Fed begins tapering its asset purchases," CACIB adds.