The rise of two big risks, Brexit and the trade war, prompted the Federal Reserve to quit raising interest rates, and the economy is still doing well.
The same risks did not stop the European Central Bank from ending its bond buying and talking about its plans to tighten, and the economy has slowed markedly.
Unless risk aversion rises because of the slowdown -- which looks unlikely -- EUR/USD must surely fall.
The risks that spurred the Fed to change its mind led to a global downturn in rates and expectations they would fall further, and that's fuelling risk appetite.
Stocks and commodities have rallied and volatility in currency markets is low.
At the most improbable time, the key elements to support risk-taking have come together.
The euro is the most liquid funding currency, the dollar is the most liquid asset.
EUR/USD will get sold.
EUR and USD TWI, EUR 3 month vol and MSCI Click here