The EUR/USD has been under pressure this week as the market is pricing in a solid to strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report tonight, following mostly better-than-expected data recently, with ADP jobs blowing out even the highest expectations nAQN022V99.
The best ADP jobs increase since May 2015 was impossible for the market to ignore, but the ADP job numbers aren't necessarily a reliable guide for the U.S. non-farm payrolls.
With the bar set high, the risk is for disappointment. The Reuters poll shows the market is expecting +160k jobs after a 145k rise in December, unemployment to remain at 3.5% and average hourly earnings to climb 0.3% m/m versus 0.1% previously.
Even if the data largely meets expectations, there might be disappointment if there isn't a significant beat, which might result in a decent round of EUR/USD short covering.
This week EUR/USD has so far held the 76.4 Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0879-1.1240 move at 1.0964 and while that level holds, there is a risk of a rebound above the 10-day moving average at 1.1024, before the trend lower resumes.
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