June 10 (Reuters) - FX traders should watch a GBP/USD momentum reading closely, which is currently positive, especially as spot usually climbs in June.

GBP/USD performance for each June since 2000 shows it has risen in 15 of the last 25 years, or 60% of the time. Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool combined with other factors.

Fourteen-week momentum remains positive, reinforcing the underlying bullish market structure. There is scope for a break above last week's new 2025 1.3616 high, which if sustained should lead to much bigger gains. That would increase the likelihood for cable to close above June's 1.3460 open in positive territory. However, a flip to a negative momentum reading would be risk to this month's seasonal trend.

Focus is on a spending review on Wednesday that will set government departments' budgets up to 2029, covering most of the remainder of the Labour Party's term in office, while concerns persist around Britain's sovereign debt levels.
Seasonality Chart:


Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)