• EUR/USD sank from 1.1214 to 1.0125 where it was steeply oversold

• Drop between Sep and Feb partly driven by fear of Trump inspired trade war

• Minor correction reaching 1.0529 Feb 29 - 38.2% - follows Feb 3 plunge

• EUR/USD flips from oversold to overbought ahead Mar 4 tariff deadline

• Targets for a bigger correction/rise: 1.0670, 1.0798 and 1.0981

• Targets for deeper decline: 1.0130, 0.9985, 0.9856, 0.9670 and 0.9440

• Wise to hedge risk that EUR/USD has dropped into lower range

• If interest rates drive FX moves then EUR/JPY is going down

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EURUSD retracements


EURUSD downside targets

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)