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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 23 - 03:55 PM
  • USD IMM net spec position slips in Oct 14-20 period nL1N2HE1HZ

  • EUR +0.66% in period; specs sell 2,694 contracts now long now 165,943

  • JPY flat in period, specs sell 5,793 contracts now long 14,183

  • GBP specs shrug off Brexit angst buy 7,802 contracts short reduced to 2k

  • AUD & Kiwi specs add to longs as CNH gained 1.12% on upbeat recovery vibe

  • MXN carry traders lighten long sell 2,636 contracts now long 19,842

 

IMM Positions as of Oct 20: Click here

Majors with IMM period performance: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 23 - 02:35 PM

The dollar eased late on Friday, tracking Treasury yields lower and relinquishing gains scored when optimism over a pre-election relief bill faded nL1N2HE0ZNnW1N2G500I.

In a mixed day for risk sentiment, progress toward a Brexit deal nL8N2HC5HN was overshadowed by troubling pandemic news nL8N2HD65TnL8N2HD4J9.

EUR/USD managed modest gains, mostly on the sizeable EUR/GBP rise following the UK's downside PMI miss nL8N2HE2RD versus a roughly on-forecast euro zone PMI composite nL8N2HE2KA, even though Britain's reading remained in expansion above 50 while Europe contracted.

EUR/USD found good technical support in its earlier dip to the 10-day moving average nL1N2HE0R5, but hasn't been able to clear this week's high due to some risk aversion demand for the dollar, despite the above-forecast U.S. Markit PMI composite reading of 55.5 versus 54.3 in September nZON000NXF.

Ten-year Treasury yields were on track to end a six-session rise, a move that has become overbought with pandemic relief still uncertain.

Sterling was whipped around by the UK PMI miss then a fleeting spike to the 1.3122 session high on a report of potential compromise on EU-UK fishing rights nL8N2HE1RB, a key Brexit issue.

That was followed by a rapid slide to session lows nL1N2HE0QW by the 55-day moving average at 1.3018, which it had vaulted above during Wednesday's wild advance.

Wednesday's 1.3177 high and October peak completed a 61.8% Fibo of September's slide at 1.3173 before beginning a retreat before the weekend.

USD/JPY was a shade lower, but the two havens -- dollar and yen -- seem to have found some stability in the 104.00s yet again.
Early losses were reduced by the risk-off dollar demand in U.S. trade nL1N2HE0XX.
The 104.93 high on EBS retraced 50% of Wednesday's tumble, but the bigger hurdles are by 105.05.
September's 104 low is now key support.

High beta currencies were little changed after a flat finish for USD/CNY.
AUD/USD's overnight rally after decent PMI data nZRN00099D was roundly rejected by the falling 30-day moving average, tucked below the cloud base and downtrend line from September.

Oil fell under the weight of rebounding Libyan oil supply after a truce between warring factions and general unease about demand during the ongoing pandemic and with doubts about when more U.S. fiscal relief might arrive.

The BOJ and ECB meet next week, but neither is expected to change policy, though hints at future easing will be watched.
Q3 GDP estimates for Europe and the U.S. come out on Friday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 23 - 01:35 PM
  • GBP/USD soft into the weekend -0.43% at 1.3025; NorAm range 1.3122-1.3017

  • US aid, Brexit uncertainties weigh on GBP, despite upbeat fishing headlines

  • Sterling flash fisheries rally the one that got away nL1N2HE0QW

  • Bulls wary above 1.3100, res at upper 30-d Bolli 1.3122, Wed high 1.3177

  • Cloud twist attracts 1.2980 Oct 27, supt 1.2948 21DMA, 1.2867 61.8% Fib of 1.2676-1.3177 rise

  • EUR/GBP +0.67% at 0.9095, Fri range 0.9097-23; Brexit, BoE neg rate tones weigh on GBP

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 23 - 01:30 PM

Danske Research discusses its expectations for next week's ECB meeting.

"At next week’s ECB policy meeting, we do not expect any new measures to be announced. However, with the COVID-19 spreading increasing, we expect the ECB to send its usual dovish signals, which could raise further market expectations for a December decision to increase/extend PEPP due to its open interpretation of the language. Our baseline is for the ECB to signal a readiness to act subject to incoming data in the coming 6 weeks and not a pre-commitment to expand already next week," Danske notes.

"We do not expect markets to react strongly to the press conference. We expect European fixed income will continue to trade in its tight range (Bunds range between -65bp and -40bp), while ECB is not a game changer for the EURUSD.

We expect Lagarde to be questioned on the economic and inflation uncertainty and upcoming December staff projections, the content of the toolbox, effectiveness of the tools the divergence of views in the governing council," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Oct 23 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - Bulls Are Buying The Dip

By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 23 - 12:05 PM
  • EUR/USD rallies capped near 61.8% Fibo of 1.2014-1.16125 but dips get bought

  • Pair dips below the 55-DMA overnight but the 10-DMA stems the slide

  • The ensuing rally leads to the cloud top getting pierced again

  • Slight pull back from high but daily, monthly RSIs imply upside risks

  • Cloud top falls next week, might provide another dip buying opportunity

  • 1.1890/1.1900, 1.1915/30 zones are impediments for EUR/USD bulls

  • Break of the latter likely leads to test of September's monthly high

  • For more click on FXBUZ


eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 23 - 10:45 AM

Societe Generale Research maintains a buy-on-dip bias for AUD/UD, looking to go long on a dip into 0.70.

"Yuan stability will affect market sentiment on a day-to-day basis and eventually limit how far EUR/USD can go. But we're a long way from that being an issue in 2018/2019 when EURUSD average 1.15, the 10-year real yield differential between TIPS and Bunds averaged 180bp. Now its 50bp. That's the move which underpins a stronger euro and because the spread move has stalled, the euro too, has settled into this annoying range," SocGen notes. 

"We have considerably more confidence that the AUD's next big move will be above 0.8, not below 0.6, and is probably best traded by waiting for a slip closer to 0.70 to go long with a stop just below that level," SocGen adds. 

Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 23 - 10:25 AM

EUR/USD rose modestly on Friday after a euro zone PMI nL8N2HE2KA report that was just strong enough to leave bulls confident that influences from spreads, Brexit and safe-haven flows can support the euro.

The composite euro zone PMI contracted less than expected, featuring a surprisingly strong manufacturing expansion that offset a disappointing services sector performance.
Overall the data tempered some investor concerns about the economy contracting, buoying the euro.

EUR/USD was also boosted by tightening 2-year German-U.S.
yield spreads tightened and the halt in 10-year spread widening.
Data has also driven investors out of the safe-haven dollar and yen, further supporting EUR/USD.

Reports of "real progress" on Brexit nS8N2GK08C alleviated some market uncertainty, lifting risk sentiment which in turn underpinned EUR/USD.

Technicals highlight EUR/USD's upside risks.
The 10-day moving average acted as a springboard for EUR/USD, a daily bull hammer has formed, RSIs are rising and the daily cloud top has been pierced.

Should risk sentiment remain upbeat, EUR/USD could break the Oct.
21 daily high and test 1.1915/30 resistance.
A break above that zone would target September's monthly high.

For more click on FXBUZ


eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 23 - 09:30 AM

Credit Suisse likes selling GBP against the USD and the EUR in the near-term.

"We still see no reason to change our view that EURGBP should gravitate to 0.9200 while Brexit talks proceed, with GBPUSD still a sell above 1.3000. Given the government’s general approach to emotive talks, the odds of talks being concluded in a manner that rules out more apprehension and misunderstandings before a conclusion seem slim still," CS notes. 

"We note that the EU parliament, which would need to vote through any agreed deal, does not next month till 23-26 Nov, suggesting that the level of urgency to reach a conclusion will stay relatively low for some weeks to come," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 23 - 08:31 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research notes an overbought reading in EUR/USD from its short-term fair vlaue models.

"The recent appreciation of EUR/USD does not seem supported by the recent evolution of drivers like the relative central bank outlook or the credit quality of EUR-denominated assets. Indeed, more recently, we saw the UST yield curve steepening relative to the EGB curve as investors assessed the impact of future US fiscal stimulus on the long-term USTyields. Moreover, the BTP-Bund yield spread, which has been tightening aggressively since the deal on the EU recovery fund and the introduction of the ECB PEPP programme over the summer, has been re-widening more recently," CACIB notes. 

"As a result of these developments, our estimated short-term fair value for EUR/USD has dropped so that the currency pair is starting to look overvalued at current levels," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 23 - 07:20 AM
  • Price again knocking on the door of its daily cloud top, 1.1851

  • A 1.1760-1.1776 Nov 5 cloud twist could drag on further gains

  • Wed-Thurs failures to hold a cloud break spoiling bullish potential

  • Risk remains high for a deeper adjustment of the 1.1688-1.1880 rise

  • Weekly action bullish but big level here is a way off at 1.2014, Sept high

  • Near-term bearish risk but longer-term argues for a buy on dips strategy







EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 23 - 06:05 AM
  • Cable retreats to test 1.3082 (Asia high) after weaker than expected UK PMIs

  • See: nL8N2HE2RD. 1.3111 was high before UK PMIs vs 1.3051 early Ldn low

  • 1.3051 is the low water-mark since Wednesday's six-week peak of 1.3177

  • Wednesday's peak was scaled on news EU and UK trade talks to resume

  • Back at the Brexit table, UK and EU try to tackle fish nL8N2HE1RB

  • There is a big 1.3100 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut, GBP 933mn strike

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 23 - 04:50 AM
  • AUD/USD hits 0.7148 after rallying off 0.7103 (early Europe intra-day low)

  • 0.7148 is the highest level since Oct 15 (when AUD fell on dovish Lowe)

  • 0.7021 was Tuesday's three-week low, before short covering-assisted rise

  • Risk-sensitive AUD is benefitting from European equity gains nL4N2HE2A6

  • Offers expected pre-0.72 if AUD/USD extends north (0.7190 was Oct 14 high)

  • There is a big 0.7180 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut, A$827mn strike

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 23 - 03:40 AM
  • EUR/CHF hit an EBS low of 1.0703 in Asia after extending south from 1.0747

  • 1.0703 is the lowest level since Oct 15 -- when 1.0689 was 3-month EBS low

  • 1.0747 was EBS high on Thursday (highest level since 1.0689)

  • Risk of SNB intervention (selling CHF) is key source of support for EUR/CHF

  • Swiss franc scaled six-week peak vs USD on Wednesday (1.1072) nL1N2HC0I6

  • Bbg-SNB may have to sell some of its $100 billion in U.S. stocks

EURCHF Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 23 - 02:35 AM
  • Cable eases to 1.3051 despite UK retail sales beat, +4.7% YY vs +3.7% f/c

  • See: nAPN36T600. 1.3051 = two-day low (1.3056 was Asian session low)

  • 1.3030 (Oct 15 high) and 1.3000 are support points below 1.3050

  • 1.3177 was Wednesday's six-week high, on news EU-UK trade talks to resume

  • EU-UK trade talks resumed Thursday nL8N2HD6ZF. UK-Japan trade deal signed

  • See: nL4N2HE0ZO. UK Sept flash PMIs 0830GMT; service f/c 54, mfg f/c 53.1

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Oct 23 - 02:25 AM
  • EUR/USD slides back below 1.1800 (1.1787 low EBS)

  • 1.1785 is 50% recent rise from 1.1689-1.1880 (Oct 15-21), 55-DMA @ 1.1796

  • Setback will disappoint traders widely betting on a rise

  • Today flash PMIs reported, France 7.15GMT, Germany 7.30GMT, EZ 8.00GMT

  • EZ PMI f/c softer. Composite 49.3 from 50.4

  • Failed break above daily Ichimoku cloud 1.1851-1.1634 should concern

  • Time running out for longs. Year-end will lead to some unwinding





EUR/USD Click here

EUR/USD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 23 - 02:10 AM
  • EUR bulls fail to maintain a daily cloud top break but key supp. near by

  • Will take a drop under 21DMA, 1.1757, to threaten 1.1728 trend support

  • Long upper wkly candle shadow a concern but 1.1688 tipping point a way off

  • Monthly action just holding above the cloud base, also at 1.1688

  • Daily momentum close to neutral and RSI points south

  • Dip buying maybe prudent but we prefer to stand aside for now







EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Oct 23 - 01:25 AM
  • AUD/USD struggles after initial rally to 0.7139, last 0.7107

  • Uncertainty over US stimulus deal churns FX markets nW1N2G600R

  • If AUD/USD ends Fri below 0.7085, chart outlook turns bearish

  • Confirmation of Bollinger downtrend channel will spur longs to bail

  • USD index rebound has reached chart inflection point, but may fail

  • Bets on earlier Fed hike, lifting US yields, may be premature nL1N2HE04V

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 22 - 10:40 PM
  • -0.1%, in the middle of a 1.3056-1.3082 range with only occasional interest

  • UK consumer sentiment off most since start of pandemic - GfK nL8N2HD6HN

  • Data underlines the importance of a Brexit compromise for the UK economy

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head higher - positive setup

  • 1.3173, 61.8% of September fall capped Wednesday remains major resistance

  • Close below 1.2950 21 DMA, a recent base, would end the topside bias

  • 1.3038 61.8% of Wed's bounce and 1.3100 775M strikes support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 oct 23 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 22 - 08:25 PM
  • Flat after closing little changed, with E-mini S&P futures also up 0.1%

  • Australia fast tracks mega renewable energy, hydrogen project nL4N2HD12K

  • No tier 1 data or RBA speeches, so U.S. Presidential debate at noon leads

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict, which is a neutral setup

  • Trades in the middle of 0.7000-0.7250 range in place since late September

  • Asian 0.7114-0.7139 range is initial support-resistance

  • Technicals provide little short term bias.

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud oct 23 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Oct 22 - 07:40 PM
  • AUD/USD well bid in early Asia, rallies 0.2%; traders cite AUD/NZD demand

  • Weak NZ inflation prompts talk of more RBNZ stimulus, prompts cross buying

  • AUD/NZD fall of 2.2% since Oct 8 had led to perception decline overextended

  • Recovery potential limited as RBA dovish expectations remain entrenched

  • Traders brace for crucial U.S. presidential debate Friday nL1N2HD0U2

  • AUD/USD resistance 0.7135-40, 0.7155-60, support 0.7105-10, 0.7080-85

  • AUD/NZD resistance 1.0690-1.0700, 1.0730-40, support 1.0660, 1.0630

  • For more click on FXBUZ


AUD NZD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 22 - 07:25 PM
  • Flat after closing off 0.5% with an inside day, as the USD bounced

  • Brexit talks intensify, little sign of compromise on key issues nL8N2HD6ZF

  • UK consumer sentiment off most since start of pandemic - GfK nL8N2HD6HN

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head higher - positive setup

  • 1.3173, 61.8% of the September fall capped Wednesday is major resistance

  • Close below 1.2951 21 DMA, a recent base, would end the topside bias

  • 1.3038 61.8% of Wed's bounce and 1.3100 775M strikes support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp oct 23 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 22 - 07:00 PM
  • Flat after closing off 0.35%, amid profit taking, as the USD firmed

  • France extends curfew as COVID second wave surges in Europe nL8N2HD65T

  • Spain yet to decide on curfew to contain 'out-of-control' virus nL8N2HD3FV

  • Second wave will have a major economic impact - tough winter ahead

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 DMAs and momentum studies rise - bullish setup

  • Close above 1.1860, 61.8% of the September fall would target 1.2014 Sep top

  • NY 1.1811 low and London 1.1867 high are initial support-resistance

  • 1.1800 728M and 1.1840-50 1BLN are today's close strikes

For more click on FXBUZ


eur oct 23 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 22 - 03:05 PM

Credit Suisse discusses AUD outlook around the US November elections.

"Barring a spectacular surprise decision from the RBA on 3 November (e.g. no easing at all, or at the other extreme, target cash rate cut to 0%), we suspect that price action in AUDUSD will be more closely driven by the outcome of the US election around that date and in the following weeks. Over the past month, market expectations have been resiliently set on a “blue sweep” outcome and on ensuing USD weakness. AUD has not participated in the price action, and is therefore likely to be viewed as a “catch up” play in the event of an election outcome in line with market expectations. In the event of a less USD-negative / risk-positive outcome from US elections, we think it is reasonable instead to expect the procyclical aspect of AUD to push the pair sub 0.70,' CS notes. 

"This overall leaves us inclined to not change our pre-election AUDUSD target from the current 0.70 level, despite spot FX being at the time of writing fairly close to the target," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Oct 22 - 05:15 PM
  • AUD/USD holds ground on resilient risk mood despite U.S. uncertainties

  • Markets buoyed by U.S. stimulus bets despite talks dragging onnL1N2HD0KX

  • Traders brace for final U.S. presidential debate Thursday night nL1N2HD0U2

  • AUD recovery potential to be limited as RBA dovish expectations entrenched

  • AU-U.S.10-year bond yield differential hovers below parity, weighing on AUD

  • Support 0.7080-85, 0.7045-50, resistance 0.7135-40, 0.7155-60

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Real Clear Politics odds: Click here

PredictIt odds on U.S. presidential election: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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