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Thomson Reuters
Sep 27 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 26 - 11:09 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Odds for further strength EUR have diminished.

We have held the same view since last Friday (21 Sep, spot at 1.1775) wherein EUR has scope to extend higher to 1.1850. The price action since then has been lackluster at best, as EUR traded within a relatively narrow range of 1.1721/1.1815. The quiet sideway consolidation has resulted in a loss in upward pressure and the odds for further EUR strength have diminished. Unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1800 within these 1 or 2 days, this risk will shift slowly to the downside and break of the 1.1690 ‘key support’ would not be surprising. In other words, time is not on the side of those looking for a higher EUR.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

GBP touched a high of 1.3218 yesterday, just a couple of pips below the top of our expected 1.3020/1.3220 consolidation range. As highlighted yesterday, despite the rather sharp rebound from last Friday’s 1.3041 low, we continue to view the current price action as part of a consolidation phase. Looking further ahead, a clear break above 1.3220 would be a good indication that GBP is ready to challenge last week’s 1.3295 top.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Risk of a stronger recovery has increased.

While AUD popped above last week’s 0.7305 top (overnight high of 0.7313), the up-move was short-lived. For now, we still see risk for a stronger recovery in AUD towards 0.7360 but patchy upward momentum suggests any up-move would likely be slow and grinding. On the downside, a break of 0.7220 is enough to indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Diminished odds for further NZD strength.

There is not much to add as NZD hit an overnight high of 0.6696, holding just a few pips below last week’s 0.6699 peak. The rapid pullback from the high reinforces our current view wherein the odds for further NZD strength have diminished. However, only a break of 0.6620 (no change in ‘key support’) would indicate that a short-term top is in place. Until then, NZD could stage another leg higher to 0.6730 but this has to happen within these 1 to 2 days or the current upward pressure would ease quickly.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): A break above the July’s peak near 113.15 would not be surprising.

USD came very close to the July’s peak near 113.15 as it briefly hit a high of 113.13 during NY hours. The up-move was short-lived as it dropped back sharply to a low of 112.61. We highlighted on Tuesday (25 Sep, spot at 112.80) that “a break above 113.15 would not be surprising”. Despite the relatively weak daily closing (NY close of 112.72, -0.22%), we still see chance for USD to move above 113.15. That said, upward has been dented and the probability for a break of the next resistance at 113.45 is not high. Only a break of 112.15 (no change in ‘key support’) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

UOB Research/Market Commentary


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