Morgan Stanley Research previews the US CPI report due on Tuesday. 

We expect October core CPI to slow sharply to 0.19% m/m from 0.33% in September, below consensus. The moderation is concentrated in services, where we expect shelter, hotels, airfares, and education to normalize after unusually strong September readings. The health insurance reset should provide an additional drag. Core goods inflation also eases on softer car prices but remains positive amid AI-related price pressures," MS notes.

Headline CPI is also 0.19% m/m, with the NSA index at 337.020. The BLS will not publish y/y rates for this release because year-ago indexes for most categories are unavailable due to the lapse in data collection during the 2025 federal shutdown. A key question is whether September’s jump in shelter inflation was signal or noise. We think it was largely noise, amplified by unusual volatility in the Midwest, and expect housing inflation to return toward its underlying trend," MS adds.