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Aug 30 - 06:55 PM

TD: Latest Signals From Growth Basket Favor USD, NOK, CAD, and JPY

By eFXdata  —  Aug 30 - 03:00 PM

TD Securities' growth basket is currently bullish on the NOK, CAD, USD, and JPY against other major currencies. EUR and GBP are the lowest-ranked currencies in their growth factor. TD expects the USD to maintain its leading position, particularly with the anticipation of robust U.S. data this week. While the MRSI (Momentum Relative Strength Indicator) is still long the USD, the signal has weakened over the past month.

Key Points:

  • Bullish on NOK, CAD, USD, JPY: TD's growth basket shows these currencies are currently favored against the rest.

  • Bearish on EUR and GBP: These currencies rank last in TD's growth factor, implying a weaker performance compared to the bullish currencies.

  • USD Still Dominant: Despite some deceleration in the MRSI signal, the USD is likely to stay in control, especially if the upcoming U.S. data remains strong.

  • Thematic Trades: TD is currently focused on trades that relate to carry, such as short EUR/MXN, and relative growth, such as short GBP/CAD.


For Traders and Investors:

  • USD Dominance: Consider maintaining a bullish outlook on the USD, especially if you anticipate strong U.S. economic data.

  • Thematic Trades: For those looking at specific themes, consider short positions in EUR/MXN and GBP/CAD.

  • Watch the Data: Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. economic indicators, as stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the USD's dominant position.


TD Securities' latest signals from their growth basket suggest a continued bullish outlook on NOK, CAD, USD, and JPY, while being bearish on EUR and GBP. The USD is expected to maintain its dominance, further supported by strong U.S. data. However, traders should note that while the MRSI is still long the USD, the signal has weakened recently. For now, TD's focus remains on thematic trades, like shorting EUR/MXN and GBP/CAD, rather than shifting away from a bullish USD stance.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


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