ING presents its outlook on the EUR/USD currency pair, drawing attention to the following key aspects:
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Impact of US Employment Figures: The softer headline for US employment provided some relief for EUR/USD during the past week.
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100-Day Moving Average: The EUR/USD found some support around the 100-day Moving Average, which is currently just above the 1.0920 mark. As long as this level holds, trend followers may maintain their bullish stance on the EUR/USD.
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Near-Term Forecast: Given the expected mixed movements in the FX markets, ING anticipates that the EUR/USD will remain mostly range-bound around the 1.10 mark for the week.
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European Data and ECB Survey: On the European side, there are some second-tier data releases expected and the European Central Bank (ECB) consumer expectations survey due on Tuesday. These events, however, may not significantly influence the market's current pricing.
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Market Expectations: The market currently anticipates around 18 basis points of tightening by the ECB by the end of the year. The upcoming data and surveys are unlikely to have a substantial impact on this expectation.
Conclusion: ING's outlook for the EUR/USD this week suggests stability, with the currency pair likely hovering around the 1.10 mark. The 100-day moving average is seen as a crucial support level in the near term, and the week's data releases and surveys are not expected to cause significant shifts in market sentiment or pricing.