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Sep 17 - 11:55 AM

AUD/JPY - COMMENT-Global Risk Weather Vanes S&P 500 And AUD/JPY On The Verge

By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 17 - 10:05 AM

Global risk tolerance could be on the verge of down-shifting if two key gauges, AUD/JPY and S&P futures, which are positively correlated, fall through key support.

AUD/JPY clung to pivotal 55-day moving average support at 76.07, and S&Ps on 50-DMA support at 3,334, a close below which could trigger a dive to the 200-DMA at 3,099 last.
AUD/JPY's 200-DMA is at 72.87, near June's 72.51 pullback low.

An equities letdown followed decisions by the Fed, BOJ and BOE to leave policy unchanged and the head of the U.S. CDC saying it could be Q2 or Q3 2021 before a COVID-19 vaccine becomes generally available.

Frothy financial asset markets are worried that central banks cannot cut rates further, limiting potential growth of reflation trades.
There's also uncertainty about the pandemic, Brexit and the U.S. election.

China's rapid recovery from the pandemic and dollar weakness have helped commodity prices and the aussie to recover.
And Australian jobs data overnight were better than forecasted nL4N2GE0KH, but the bigger driver for AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive assets is risk acceptance or aversion levels, as reflected in the S&P 500.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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