Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs forecasts core retail sales to grow by +0.2% in January (vs. consensus +0.3%) and expects headline retail sales to decline by -0.2%, impacted by higher gasoline prices and weaker auto sales.

Key Points:

1. Core Retail Sales (+0.2%) Slows:

   • Modest growth in card spending indicators.
   • Colder-than-usual weather likely weighed on consumer activity.

2. Headline Retail Sales (-0.2%) Weakens:

   • Higher gasoline prices provided some offset.
   • Lower auto sales dragged overall figures down.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs sees retail sales moderating in January, with headline figures turning negative (-0.2%) and core sales growth slowing (+0.2%). Weather and auto sector weakness likely contributed to the slowdown.