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May 24 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - IFO Data And EUR/USD Betting Have A Lot In Common

By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 24 - 04:35 AM
  • IFO and EUR/USD betting reflect much hope but grim reality

  • IFO current conditions deteriorate to 88.6 from 95.0 (f/c 94.8)

  • Business climate drops to 91.7 from 93.6 missing the 93.0 f/c

  • Expectations beat 91.9 f/c at 94.8 in May from 92.2 in April

  • EUR/USD similar with huge betting on a rise but pair rangebound in 2023

  • Since 2023's peak on Apr 26 EUR/USD has dropped to 1.0760

  • Return to middle 2023 range then followed by risk aversion nL1N37L0DJ

  • The big EUR/USD gamble is at risk of a serious adjustment nL1N37L0FD

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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