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Goldman Sachs Research revises down its USD/JPY forecasts.
"We revised down our USD/JPY forecasts from 162, 163, 165 (in 3, 6, 12 months) to 158, 155, 150. The path reflects our cautious tactical bias but the stronger valuation anchor over the long-term," GS notes.
"We see risks in both directions around the baseline. USD/JPY could defy our expectations and continue to rise if US growth runs ahead of the rest of the world, leading the Fed to pursue a bigger hiking cycle while BoJ hikes fall short of current pricing, and no shift in flows actually occurs. However, USD/JPY could fall even more than we expect if the data show signs of portfolio reallocation, the BoJ shifts to an even faster pace of hikes while the Fed disappoints current pricing, and the growth outlook deteriorates," GS adds.