Societe Genearle Research sees USD/JPY enroute to 130 this year ahead of 124 by the mid of next year.
"Once upon a time, the idea that the yen would fail to get a lift from the news of the second biggest bank failure in US history would have seemed very strange indeed, but these days, relative rates/yields are the drivers of how the yen performs. It was too soon for the BoJ, under the leadership of Kazuo Ueda, to make any policy changes in April, but further changes are on the horizon," SocGen notes.
"We expect the next widening of the YCC bands to come in June, and while that won’t come as a surprise, it will allow the Treasury/JGB yield differential to resume narrowing after a three-month (and counting) hiatus. If we blindly plug in our forecasts for yield differentials, it’s on its way through 130 later this year and towards 120 in H1 2024," SocGen adds.