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May 29 - 10:55 AM

Credit Agricole: Targets EUR/USD at 1.07 by End of June; Here is Why?

By eFXdata  —  May 29 - 09:30 AM


Credit Agricole outlines their expectation for EUR/USD to decline to 1.07 by the end of June, influenced by anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts and the potential repricing of the Federal Reserve's outlook.

Key Points:

  • ECB Rate Cuts: An ECB rate cut in June is widely anticipated, with additional cuts expected later in the year. These actions are likely to impact EUR-USD rate spreads significantly.
  • Fed Outlook Repricing: The trajectory of EUR/USD will be heavily influenced by any changes in the market's expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Without adjustments toward tighter conditions seen earlier in the year, EUR/USD may struggle to sustain levels above 1.09.
  • Market Dynamics: Current market dynamics suggest a potential retracement of EUR/USD to Credit Agricole's long-standing forecast of 1.07 by the end of June, reflecting broader monetary policy expectations and their effects on currency valuations.


Credit Agricole maintains a bearish outlook on EUR/USD, targeting a move down to 1.07 by the end of June, driven by expected ECB rate cuts and the absence of a significant shift in Fed policy expectations. This forecast hinges on how currency markets react to evolving monetary policy signals from major central banks.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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