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May 06 - 08:55 AM

EUR/USD - Beware Mega Option Effect On Post Fed EUR/USD Trading

By Richard Pace  —  May 06 - 06:58 AM

May 6 (Reuters) - Soon-to-expire FX option strikes can influence the FX spot price and there are plenty to note in EUR/USD over coming sessions.

Those managing FX options or trading volatility will typically offset currency risk by trading an opposing cash hedge to their option position. This hedging activity tends to increase as the expiry draws nearer and can draw the spot price toward the option strike if it is nearby and there's nothing else to excite the market.

There have been plenty of strikes helping to keep EUR/USD near 1.1300 over recent sessions, with 1.4 billion euros at 1.1325 standing out for Tuesday's 10 a.m. New York cut expiry. There are plenty more over the rest of this week at 1.1250 and 1.1400 and below the current spot price at 1.1250 and 1.1200, with the biggest accumulation expiring after Wednesday's U.S. Fed policy decision.

EUR/USD strike expiries for Thursday's 10 a.m. New York cut (3 p.m. London, 14:00 GMT) are at 1.1200 on 3.7 billion euros, 1.1225 on 821 million euros, 1.1250 on 2.3 billion euros, 1.1300 on 1 billion euros, 1.1350 on 800 million euros, 1.1390-1.1400 on a massive 5.5 billion euros and 1.1420 on 1.7 billion euros.

Big technical support resides in the upper-mid 1.12s to help underpin EUR/USD, but FX option prices show simmering concerns about renewed volatility and FX gains.

Related - Markets calmer, but what do the fear gauges tell us?
EUR option expiries


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters

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