Nordea Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that EUR/USD and gold usually gain in months ahead of Fed's first cut.
"EUR/USD is usually a decent long heading into the first cut from Fed – in particular in the 30 preceding trading days, probably as the ECB is often the “easing turtle” among G10 central banks. We got another taste of the turtle pace within the ECB last week, as they still seem some way from easing further (outside of keeping TLTROs alive). In many ways the Euro zone is in much greater need of easing than the US (5y5y inflation expectations are e.g. much lower), but it will prove difficult for the ECB to compete in a race to the bottom with Fed as the ECB is already in the cellar. The ECB will most likely end up lagging the easing pace of the Fed," Nordea notes.
"Another “must-buy” in to the first Fed cut is Gold. The shiny metal often performs in the 30-40 trading days ahead of the Fed cut. Buy Treasuries, buy Gold, but hedge the currency risk if you are based outside out of US," Nordea adds.