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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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AUD / USD
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 08 - 10:39 PM

  • -0.05% inside day with a tight 0.7158-0.7173 range, busy early then quiet

  • Low key Asian FX, oil up, Brent +1%, stocks mostly firmer, UST yields steady

  • Digital AUD led by demand - cautious on crypto-assets - RBA nS9N2QH02N

  • Charts; 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages continue to trend lower

  • Daily momentum studies base, 21 day Bollinger bands contract - neutral setup

  • Break of 0.7109 10 DMA suggests downtrend will enter a consolidation phase

  • Sustained 0.7189 21 DMA and 0.7208, 38.2% Oct-Dec fall would be bullish

  • Close below 0.7109 10 DMA would reinvigorate the downtrend

    For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 Dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 08 - 10:12 PM

  • -0.1% trades at the base of a 1.3193-1.3210 range with moderate interest

  • Economists split on Dec rate rise, no change narrow favourite nL8N2ST2K1

  • Starting pay up by a record, as candidate shortages squeeze nL8N2ST1RV

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages fall, 21 day Bollinger bands expand

  • Close above 1.3339 falling 21 day moving average needed to end downtrend

  • Bearish setup targets a break of 1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise

  • 1.3160 break targets 1.2830/50, Nov 2020 range support and 50% 2020-21 rise

  • Charts and 'Plan B' suggest further sterling losses nL1N2SU00D

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 Dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 08 - 08:10 PM

  • -0.1% after closing up 0.75%, as risk appetite improved and the USD fell

  • Optimism on data suggesting booster may protect against Omicron nL1N2ST0Q6

  • RBA - digital AUD led by demand - cautious on crypto-assets nS9N2QH02N

  • Charts; 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages continue to trend lower

  • Daily momentum studies base, 21 day Bollinger bands contract - neutral setup

  • Break of 0.7110 10 DMA suggests downtrend will enter a consolidation phase

  • Sustained 0.7189 21 DMA and 0.7208, 38.2% Oct-Dec fall would be bullish

  • Early London 0.7117 low and NY 0.7183 high first support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


aud Dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 08 - 07:30 PM

The pound fell 0.3% on Wednesday, while EUR/GBP jumped 1% to the highest levels since late September, despite broad-based U.S. dollar weakness with further sterling losses viable, as 'Plan B' and the technical outlook weigh.

PM Johnson imposed a 'Plan B' limited lockdown to fight the fast spreading Omicron variant nL8N2ST2N8.
Booster shots are being rolled out, which should have a positive influence on hospital admissions nL1N2ST20L, but Johnson's measures nL8N2ST5TA will weigh on the economy as a whole.

BOEWATCH priced the chances of a 25pt rate rise to 0.35% at 33% on Tuesday, which tightened to 27% on Wednesday.
It would now be a major surprise for the BoE to raise rates on December 16th, while the statement is unlikely to have a significant hawkish tone, as limited lockdowns return and the Omicron variant spreads.

Technically 5, 10 & 21 daily and weekly moving averages head south with the 21-day Bollinger bands, which is a strong bearish setup.
A close above 1.3265 10-day moving average would flag caution for the trend, while a close above the 1.3339 21 DMA would end the downside bias.

1.3166, 38.2% of the 2020-2021 rise held on the close Wednesday, but remains vulnerable.
A break would target 1.2830/50, range support in October, November 2020 and 50% of 2020-21 rise.

For more click on FXBUZ





























gbp Dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 08 - 06:02 PM

  • Steady after closing up 0.7%, as EUR shorts squeezed and safe haven USD fell

  • Bounce broke key resistance levels and changed the technical outlook

  • 21 day Bollinger bands contract with coiling 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages

  • Momentum studies climb - conflicting signals suggest consolidation

  • Nov lower 21 day Bolli band rejection and close above 1.1312 21 DMA- bullish

  • Targets a test of the falling 1.1438 upper 21 day Bolli band as in Aug-Sep

  • 1.1300 475 MLN and 1.1380 567 MLN are Thursday's significant strikes

  • NY 1.1267-1.1355 range is initial support and resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


eur Dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 03:00 PM

Citi discusses AUD/NZD near-term technical outlook and sees a scope for move into 1.0601-1.0612.

"AUDNZD posted a bullish outside day yesterday closing above 1.0421 and is now trading higher around 1.0528," Citi notes. 

"Additionally, AUDNZD can potentially post a bullish outside week with a close above 1.0497. If seen this suggests a move to the 1.0601- 1.0612 resistance range that includes the May low, the 200-day moving average, and the October high," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Dec 08 - 04:26 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.8% higher, on pace to notch third straight session of gains

  • Rises as fears on hit to global economic recovery from Omicron variant fade

  • Growing perception that 7.3% drop from October 0.7555 peak overdone supports

  • Boosted by rally in risk assets; S&P 500 posts biggest 3-day rise in a year

  • Higher oil and copper prices underpin ; U.S. crude +0.75%, NYK copper +1%

  • RBA Governor Lowe speaks at 9.05 AM Sydney; topic -Payments: the Future?

  • Resistance 0.7200-10, 0.7230-35, support 0.7145-50, 0.7115-20

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Reuters poll graphic on the U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 08 - 02:46 PM

The dollar fell on Wednesday, reversing recent Omicron-related haven buying as markets remained enthralled by preliminary reports indicating the severity of the new variant may be less than prior iterations and Pfizer comments that a three-shot course could provide protection nL1N2ST0Q6.

The dollar index was down 0.42% at 95.875, deriving no support from JOLTS data showing the labor market was tighter than expected in October.

U.S.
job openings surged in October while hiring decreased, adding to evidence of a worsening worker shortage that could hamper employment growth and the overall economy.

Market trends have also become muddled by the approach of two high-profile risk events -- Friday's U.S. inflation report and next week's Fed meeting -- along with the thin liquidity that usually accompanies the year-end period.

The U.S. yield curve bucked its recent flattening trend, steepening after JOLTS data and the BoC’s rate hold and less-hawkish-than-expected guidance.

EUR/USD rose 0.67% to 1.1344 aided by broad long USD haven unwinds and EUR/GBP cross buying in anticipation of the tougher COVID-19 restrictions British Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed in England on Wednesday -- ordering people to work from home, wear masks in public places and use vaccine passes in a bid to slow the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant nL8N2ST2N8.

UK-euro zone rate differentials are narrowing as the restrictions add to near-term uncertainty about UK rate hikes and push expectations out the curve.

USD/JPY rallied to 113.96 in early NorAm on Omicron haven unwinds, matching Nov.
29 highs, but dollar bulls were unable to sustain gains.

A broad wave of dollar selling pushed USD/JPY lower to 113.69 in late-U.S.
trade
, though diverging U.S.-Japan rate differentials should keep it bid in the near-term.

GBP/USD put in a new 2021 low at 1.3162, reacting to UK lockdown talk and a further reduction of odds on a BoE rate hike.
Diverging U.S.-UK rates kept the pound on the backfoot versus the dollar, while converging UK-euro zone rate differentials lifted the EUR by 0.76% versus the pound.

AUD/USD moved was trading at 0.7177, up 0.82% in late-U.S.
dealings
.
China’s RRR cut, diminished Omicron angst and the RBA's upbeat economic outlook helped boost Aussie above its 10-DMA at 0.7092, putting the 30-DMA at 0.7274 in sharper focus.

USD/CAD whipsawed after the BoC held rates steady, rising from its post-meeting flash low at 1.2607 to session highs by 1.2667 before reversing to stand 0.02% higher at 1.2645.
While no rate change had been expected, some traders had positioned for a more aggressive tack on early rate hikes.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 08 - 01:40 PM
  • After early strength US rates EDM2US2YT=RR soften & weigh down US$

  • Equities ESv1 stay buoyant, copper HGv1 & iron-ore DCIOc2 rally

  • Safe-havens yen & US$ sold for riskier assets, AUD/JPY nears 81.75

  • EM ccys gain vs US$, yuan strength persists, USD/CNH sinks toward 6.3300

  • AUD/USD steadily climb in NY, breaks 0.7170/75 resistance, nears 0.7185

  • Techs are bullish; RSIs rising, 10-DMA supports, monthly bull hammer forms

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 01:30 PM

Nomura Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a bearish bias targeting a move towards 1.10.

"We suspect that buying pressure may already be over as Europe faces a tougher winter ahead than the US and UK with higher levels of naturally acquired immunity. Positioning amongst CTAs is short EUR/USD, but we believe the trigger level for a material de-risking is around 1.1434," Nomura notes. 

"We doubt EUR/USD will get there as US inflation data this week could yield another positive surprise...We remain short in EUR/USD in spot, looking for a move towards 1.10," Nomura adds. 

Source:
Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 08 - 12:06 PM
  • EUR/USD fell to a 7-session low Tuesday but dip buyers emerged

  • After 1.1228 traded on EBS Tuesday a sharp bounces ensued

  • A daily bull hammer formed, a rally follows the hammer Wednesday

  • Daily RSI is rising & a monthly long-legged doji candle forms

  • Bullish tech signals are building but a big bear signal remains

  • Consolidation of l-t bear trend intact as 1.1200-1.1400 range holds

  • Clear & sustained break of range base implies next down leg is underway

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 10:55 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's BoC policy statement. 

"The Bank of Canada is getting ready to rumble, signalling that its fight against sustained inflation will commence with interest rate hikes in the middle two quarters of the year, but with language that hints that an April move is in the cards. While holding the policy rate at 0.25% today and maintaining bond reinvestment, the Bank’s statement offset a disappointing downward revision to Q2 GDP with an optimistic take on momentum in Q4...We’re looking for 150 bps in total hikes over 2022-23, divided equally between those two years," CIBC notes. 

"Markets went into this announcement already priced for an even faster run-up in policy rates in 2022 with fewer pauses than we expect, and what’s underpriced is the likelihood that the Fed will be on a similar timetable as the BoC, given the firmer path we’ve seen for GDP and wage/price inflation stateside," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Dec 08 - 10:14 AM

GBP/USD is preparing to end the year with a whimper, slipping to a new 2021 low at 1.3162 on Wednesday, with potential COVID-related restrictions providing the latest setback for sterling, which remains undermined by doubts over UK rate hikes since the BoE unexpectedly held steady on Nov.
4.

Further divergence in U.S.-UK rate expectations after Dec.
15-16 Fed and BoE policy
meetings would push GBP/USD lower toward early October 2020 lows by 1.28.

Media reports of an imminent lockdown nL1N2ST0U1 to arrest the spread of the Omicron variant nL8N2ST2N8 kept market speculation of a rate hike at the Dec. 16 MPC meeting grinding lower BOEWATCH, weighing on GBP/USD.

Traders should now be eying support the 200-week moving averageat 1.3152 and the lower 30-day Bolli by 1.3132.

Diminishing rate-hike expectations have reversed sterling's fortunes after its upbeat start to 2021 on waning Brexit tensions and the successful UK COVID vaccine rollout.

Since the Nov.
BoE meeting
, the pound has been weak even against low-for-longer currencies such as the JPY and EUR.
Sterling is now down 2.46% versus the yen and 0.45% versus the EUR over the past six months.
The euro and yen
have fallen more than 7% versus the dollar over the same period.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 09:30 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and adopts a bearish bias Into Q1'22.

"We showed AUD/USD was on head and shoulders top watch. \We said if spot were to start trading below .7150 then it would be breaking below the neckline of the pattern and confirming a top. Price action has done this and risk to the downside have increased. We think this pattern aligns well with the macro technical risks shown below. We think downside risk can persist while spot is trading below .7371," BofA notes. 

"To express a bearish AUD/USD view we buy a 3m .69/.65 put spread for 74 USD pips ( vol: 10.74%/12.32%, expiry March 4, 2022)," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 08:32 AM

TD Research discusses its expectations for today's BoC policy meeting.

"We look for a relatively quiet BoC meeting as the Bank maintains that the outlook is evolving as expected. We do not expect any change to guidance," TD notes. 

"We think the risk pullback will offer attractive entry levels for CAD against the likes of JPY and CHF in early 2022, although COVID uncertainty, heightened risk aversion, and a relatively poor local growth and mobility backdrop should keep USDCAD hanging around 1.28 a bit longer," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 08 - 06:41 AM
  • Cable drops to 1.3186 on word that new UK COVID restrictions are imminent

  • Britain could implement COVID 'plan b' as early as Thursday - reports

  • See: nL8N2ST2N8. 1.3186 is one-year low (1.3135 was Dec 2020 low)

  • UK COVID rule reports come as UK PM faces backlash over Dec 2020 Xmas party

  • See: nL1N2ST0FF. Johnson faces PMQs from MPs from 1200 GMT to 1230 GMT

  • 1.3224 (Monday's low) is now a resistance level. 1.3260 was Asia high

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 08 - 05:54 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.3199 (Dec low) on reports new UK COVID rules imminent

  • FT-UK PM Johnson to introduce new restrictions to curb Omicron spread

  • UK could implement 'plan b' as early as Thursday - Times radio nL9N2OX00S

  • Reports come as Johnson faces backlash over Xmas lockdown party nL1N2ST0FF

  • Ladbrokes shortens odds for Johnson to be replaced as PM in 2022 to 7/4

  • 1.3195 (11-month low on Nov 30) and 1.3166 are GBP/USD support levels

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 08 - 04:38 AM
  • Defensive sectors lift European shares after two-day rally nL4N2ST206

  • Japan's Q3 GDP revised down to 3.6% annualised contraction nT9N2SK00H

  • Risk appetite up, poor Japan data, weighs on the safe-haven yen

  • Trading remains under Tuesday's 113.78 high, but this market is at risk

  • USD/JPY has seen a 113.33-61 range on Wednesday, according to EBS prices

  • USD/JPY's growing scope for gains above 114.03 tech resistance nL1N2ST0ED

  • However, the dollar could be in for another rough December nL1N2SR1XL

  • EUR/JPY's 30-day correlation with USD/JPY sub +0.5: relationship broken

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 08 - 03:36 AM
  • A thick daily cloud, that spans the 111.90-113.31 region, underpins

  • That increases scope for a further gains to challenge kijun line at 114.03

  • A break and daily close above will accelerate further up to the 114.38 Fibo

  • 114.38 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 115.52 to 112.54 November drop

  • Previous USD/JPY update nL1N2SS0IN. USD/JPY Trader TGM2336

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 127.93-128.22 range, according to EBS price data

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Dec 08 - 03:00 AM
  • Fourteen-day momentum remains negative since early November

  • Bearish alignment of the tenkan and kijun lines adds to the negative outlook

  • Interim resistance weighs between 21-DMA, now at 1.1317, Dec 2 1.1347 high

  • Last week's 1.1387 peak should act as a barometer for direction

  • A break above the 1.1387 peak will signal a bullish revival

  • Dollar could be in for another rough December nL1N2SR1XL

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2SS0G5

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Dec 08 - 02:58 AM
  • Cable has traded a quarter-cent range thus far Wednesday, 1.3235-1.3260

  • 1.3260 is also the high since Tuesday's drop to test 1.3209 (Friday's low)

  • Offers may emerge near 1.3282 (10-day moving average) if 1.3260 vaulted

  • Sell orders by the 10DMA kept lid on cable Tuesday, before drop to 1.3209

  • See: nL1N2SS1KH. 1.3195 was 11-month low on Nov 30 (after hawkish Powell)

  • Biden to pick more Fed policymakers pre-Jan 1, White House says nL1N2SS2PP

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Dec 08 - 01:54 AM
  • Price ranges are tightening and the underlying bear trend looking tired

  • Momentum readings likely to fade and RSI values are diverging

  • Corrective risk increasing: trend defining 10DMA could come under pressure

  • Minimum correction off 1.3834-1.3195 drop is at 1.3346

  • Tighter levels for Wed at 1.3282 10DMA and 1.3209 Tues low

  • We remain short from 1.3285 for 1.3170

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Dec 08 - 01:09 AM
  • AUD/USD leapt out of Bollinger downtrend channel Tues

  • Also reclaims Aug low, gaining solid floor at 0.7107

  • Shorts likely motivated to trim further, spur AUD higher

  • Primary target for longs to take profit is 21 DMA 0.7195

  • But inability to breach that resistance may cue pullback

  • Broad improvement in risk appetite fuels Asia stocks higher

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Dec 07 - 04:30 PM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD outlook and shifts to a neutral bias in the near-term.

"Until there is more clarity on the possible global demand impact of Omicron, we think switching to neutral bias in USDCAD is the most appropriate option," CS notes. 

"We see USDCAD re -testing 2021 highs at 1.2949 if Omicron related fears prove persistent, and think that dips in the opposite direction are likely to find support around 1.2530 (near the 50dma on daily and weekly charts alike) at least until more clarity around the BoC’s mandate review is available," CS adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
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