• Cable rose to 1.3452 in Asia as dollar fell vs yen on Japanese pension fund news

• 1.3452 is the highest level since June 15 (1.3460 was the high that day)

• Thursday high was 1.3430, after more short-covering (CFTC data due at 1930 GMT)

• 1.3140 was seven-month low on June 24. Pullback low from 1.3430 was 1.3381

• Apollo Global trumps U.S. investor Castlelake with £5.7 billion easyJet bid

• Burnham set to replace Starmer as Britain's prime minister on July 20

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD up 0.3% to a 2-week high on JPY-led USD decline in Asia; DXY -0.3%

• Buoyed by positive risk sentiment; Iran-U.S. war fades into background

• Supported by broadly higher Asian stocks; Nikkei up 1.8%, ASX 200 +0.5%

• Bears exit short positions on lack of downside momentum

• Fed Chair Warsh's semiannual testimony next week eyed for policy clues

• AUD sales vs JPY and NZD limit rise; AUD/JPY sold on Japan Fin Min comments

• RBA/RBNZ rate expectations re-priced after hawkish RBNZ rate hike on Wed

• Resistance 0.6960-65, clear break opens 0.7000; support 0.6925-30, 0.6900

• Asia range 0.6934-0-.6969
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD up 0.1% as USD weakens broadly in Asia; DXY down 0.15%

• Boosted by positive risk sentiment, buoyant metals

• But AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD selling cap gains

• RBA/RBNZ rate expectations re-priced; AUD/JPY sold on Japan Fin Min comments

• Japan to seek greater GPIF, pension fund investment at home- Fin Minister

• AUD resistance 0.6960-65, 0.7000 support 0.6900-10, 0.6875-80

• Asia range 0.6934-0.6951
AUD/NZD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining stocks rise as much as 1.8% in early trade, while the broader benchmark trades flat

• Sub-index books largest intraday pct gain since July 1, on track to snap four straight days of losses

• Copper prices hit a more than two-week high after markets shrugged off recent attacks in the Middle East [MET/L]

• BHP and Rio Tinto up 1.7% and 2.7%, respectively

• Including the day's moves, AXMM up 7.4% YTD, outpacing a 0.6% rise in AXJO
(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD likely to remain bid on dips as risk sentiment improves

• Lower oil prices support as fears of prolonged Middle East conflict ease

• Copper rises 2.6% to a 2-week high, gold up 1.1%, buoy AUD

• Rally capped by AUD/NZD sales as RBA/RBNZ rate expectations are re-priced

• Pair closes below 100-day MA for the 1st time in a year, more downside seen

• 1.1955, June 1 low and 1.1810, 200-day MA attract; Thu range 1.2041-1.2191

• AUD support ay 0.6900-10, 0.6875-80, resistance 0.6960-65, 0.7000

• Thursday range 0.6926-0.6947-

AUD/NZD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY essentially sideways on 162, Asia so far today 162.34-43 EBS

• Nervousness over Japan FX intervention still limiting moves to upside

• Demand strong from Japanese importers, retail and on maybe more NISA flows

• Foreign buyers of Japanese stocks to continue to hedge currency risk

• USD/JPY back into its hourly Ichimoku cloud between 162.18-48 currently

• Cloud moving sideways, ascending 100-HMA 162.20 and 200-HMA 162.08 below

• Option expiries today skimpy, some large 161.12-20, 162.50-90

• Little change in JGB-US Treasury rate differentials, 2s @274, 10s 169 bps

• Could be quiet into the weekend with little in way of fresh news

• US-Iran hostilities to remain focus but crude oil prices off after rallies

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On the Fed , , ,

• On US yields , economy ,

• On US-Iran , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research discusses its Fed rates trajectory after the July FOMC minutes.

"EUR/USD remained firmly in the 1.1400-1.1450 range yesterday despite the sharp uptick in energy prices. The session was characterized by mixed news headlines regarding the future of peace negotiations with Iran, which remains unclear. Short-end EUR and USD rates have risen largely in tandem, driven primarily by higher inflation expectations. This contrasts with late June, when higher USD real rates supported broad USD FX, while yesterday the DXY index even declined modestly. The stability is also visible in option markets, where 3-month ATM implied volatility rose only very modestly, and remains well below its long-term median level. Risk reversal skews shifted ever so slightly in favour of more expensive USD calls," Danske notes.

"Last night, the minutes from FOMC's June meeting offered no major surprises. The format of the minutes did not receive similar changes as the statement (the document was still 15-pages long vs. 18 pages in April). The minutes offered no clear guidance for or against a July hike, but continued to emphasize uncertainty over future inflation and the importance of incoming data. We continue to forecast 2x25bp hikes from the Fed (current pricing: 45bp), but only later at the December and March meetings," Danske adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trading, +0.18% at 1.3412; NorAm range 1.3414-1.3389

• Pair remains anchored to 1.34, after falling from European session high 1.3430

• Despite pickup in Mideast tensions oil falls 2% may tell true story of peace outlook

• No changes in Fed, BoE rate expectations after IJC data indicates steady US labor mkt

• GBP's recent bid hints significant IMM net spec short unwinding

• GBP$ res 1.3430 Thursday high, 1.3460 daily cloud top, 1.3513 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3381 Thursday low, 1.3323 rising 10-DMA, 1.3276 daily low July 2

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened just above the overnight 1.1417 low, the pair then rallied

• Downward moves in USD, US yields , oil boosted EUR/USD

• Rallies in gold, silver and stocks weighed on USD and helped rally riskier assets

• EUR/USD hit 1.1445 then neared 1.1435 late, the pair traded up +0.18%

• Rising daily RSI, hold above the 10-DMA are encouraging signs for EUR/USD bulls

• Hold below the 21-DMA, rising channel on daily charts are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6930 after AUD/USD held a tight 0.6926-0.6945 range overnight

• The pair rallied in NY due to upbeat risk sentiment & soft USD, US yields

• Gains in gold, silver, copper, equities & UDS/CNH's drop to 6.7935 buoyed risk

• AUD/USD hit 0.6947 and held nearby late in the day, the pair traded up +0.22%

• Daily RSI, AUD/UD's hold above the 10- & 200-DMA are encouraging signs for bulls

• AUD/USD's hold below the 21-DMA, 0.6980-0.7010 resistance are concerns for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan likes selling CHF on rallies in the near-term.

"Risk was on the back foot yesterday following Trump comments suggesting the ceasefire was over. This gave the greenback a heavily bid tone in the London session, with USDCHF trading above 0.8100, but the move was short-lived and the pair is now back around 0.8060," JPM notes.

"Our CHF view is unchanged: we're happy to sell the franc on rallies versus the dollar, using it as a hedge against higher-beta longs elsewhere," JPM adds.

Sterling's underlying bullish tenor remains intact even as intensifying Middle East tensions and mounting Fed concerns over persistent inflation dominate the policy conversation, keeping GBP/USD hovering near 1.3389 after clawing back from late-June lows.

The UK political backdrop, while still fluid, has become somewhat less unsettling since PM Keir Starmer's resignation; the picture now turns on the resignation of Reform Party leader Nigel Farage and his subsequent reelection bid, which keeps a residual risk premium in the pound but no longer dominates price action.

Fundamentally, with UK political, monetary and geopolitical drivers stabilizing, the deeply short sterling IMM net spec position looks ripe for unwinding, a dynamic likely to keep the pair anchored near trend highs. As of the June 30 IMM release, sterling shorts stood at roughly 102k contracts, about +$8.47bn, a touch shy of 9-year extremes at -107k contracts. Barring a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions that drives oil back above $100/bbl and rekindles UK and global inflation, the risks that could force a meaningful move lower appear largely priced in; against such stretched positioning, a spec short-covering unwind should tilt the pair above recent trend highs.

From a technical standpoint, bulls are looking for a close within the daily cloud at 1.3409-1.3460, with a breakthrough targeting the upper Bollinger band at 1.3511. Conversely, bearish momentum may build if the pair closes below the rising 10-day moving average at 1.3323, with a decisive break beneath 1.3276 signaling a potential drop towards late-June lows around 1.3140. The current conditions suggest that GBP/USD could thrive in the face of uncertainty.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research maintains its call for a final ECB hike in September.

"After attempting to break below the 1.1400-level again yesterday, EUR/USD has since risen back up to within touching distance of 1.1450 overnight. The euro has benefitted from the pullback for the US dollar after the FOMC minutes were less hawkish than feared, and the price of Brent dropping back below USD80/barrel overnight. At the same time, the euro-zone rate market has moved to price in a higher probability of further ECB rate hikes with the market leaning more towards two rather one final hike," MUFG notes.

"The hawkish repricing has been encouraged by the jump in oil prices yesterday triggered by renewed tensions in the Middle East, and hawkish comments from ECB officials. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that further hikes maybe required while expressing concern by the renewed tensions in the Middle East. At current energy price levels, we remain comfortable with our call for one final hike in September," MUFG adds.

AUD/USD edged higher on Thursday, but the move since June 30 looks more like a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend rather than a genuine reversal, meaning long positions in the pair now hinge on the upcoming U.S. June CPI report for validation.

Technically, the picture is mixed: AUD/USD sits above its rising 200-day moving average, a bullish signal, yet it is consolidating its decline from the June 15 high—a bearish sign. This consolidation is unfolding while the pair remains below its 21-day moving average and below key structural resistance in the 0.6980-0.7010 zone. If AUD/USD fails to break above this resistance soon, long holders may start exiting while bears add to short positions, a combination that could reignite the longer-term downtrend.

The critical catalyst is the U.S. June CPI report due Monday, July 14. If core inflation matches or comes in slightly below expectations, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields

could fall as markets price in a less hawkish Fed , potentially fueling a sharp AUD/USD rally that clears the 0.6980-0.7010 resistance and targets the 0.7200 area.

Conversely, a hotter-than-expected inflation print could send the dollar and rates higher, triggering selling pressure on AUD/USD. In that scenario, the pair could break below its 200-day moving average and the June and March lows, shifting focus toward the 0.6675-0.6725 zone as the next downside target.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for another round of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"The rule of thumb that ¥1 trillion of intervention moves USD/JPY by roughly one yen appears broadly consistent with the April-May intervention episode  

For example, if intervention were to begin with USD/JPY in the 163s, pushing the exchange rate below 155-and thereby exceeding market expectations-could require intervention on the order of ¥10 trillion in a single day, or more than ¥15 trillion across multiple operations," BofA notes

"The hurdle for a Bank of Japan rate hike at the July meeting appears high, while the following policy meeting is not until mid-September. Against that backdrop, the possibility of more aggressive intervention cannot be ruled out," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6946 then fell towards 0.6930 into NY's open

• The pair traded close to flat and held a tight range in overnight trading

• Rallies in gold, silver, equities & the drop in USD/CNH lifted the pair

• US yield gains & USD bounce from its low weighed the pair

• AUD/USD hold below 21-DMA & 0.6980/90 zone are concerns for bulls

• Hold above the 10-DMA & rising RSIs give bulls some comfort though

• US weekly, continuing jobless claims are risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners rise premarket, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 2.1% at $13,437 a ton

• Prices dropped 1.5% on Wednesday on demand concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the Gulf conflict was "over"

• Copper prices rebound on Thursday as the market hopes for another de-escalation in hostilities in the Gulf and the U.S. dollar dips after its recent surge

• Shares of global mining giant BHP Group rise 1.3%

• Miners Southern Copper up 1.8% and Freeport-McMoRan adds 1.6%

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 2.7% and Ero Copper adds 1.3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY marginally softer having stalled ahead of the cycle high (162.84)

• FOMC minutes reinforce June’s hawkish tilt

• A few officials flagged case for a rate hike - latest geo tensions to emboldens hawks at the margin

• In the absence of MoF intervention, downside in USD/JPY expected to remain limited near-term

• In turn, absent of MoF action, USD/JPY dips are likely to remain shallow in the short-run

• Higher oil trajectory poses an additional headwind for JPY via terms-of-trade channel

• Current backdrop supports topside, opening door for retest of cycle high
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD meets headwind by 0.6946 after extending north from 0.6907

• 0.6907 was Wednesday low, as safe-haven USD rose on Iran war news

• Ascent to threaten 0.6946 aided by Nikkei's rebound (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• 0.6960 (Monday high) and 0.70 are resistance levels beyond 0.6946

• AUD/USD hit a three-month low last week, which the 200DMA helped define

• 200DMA is now at 0.6874. Fed's Williams is due to speak at 1300 GMT

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable helped to 1.3430 by more short-covering following break above 1.3410

• 1.3430 is the highest level since June 17. 1.3410 was Wednesday high

• CFTC data showed net GBP short near nine-year high in week to June 30

• Asian session base was 1.3389 (two pips shy of pullback low from 1.3410)

• GBP buoyed by positivity towards Burnham before July 20 UK PM change

• Fed policymakers' inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD's bounce off Wed's 1.1392 low stalls at Tue's 1.1449 high in early London trade Thursday

• Falling 21-dma now sits at 1.1452 — EUR/USD hasn't traded above it since mid June

• A break above 1.1452 would meet resistance at 1.1462-72, the July 2-3 highs

• Clearing that zone opens the door to 1.1525 — the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the 1.1849-1.1325 fall

• Decent demand emerged sub-1.1400 on Wed's dip to 1.1392; option expiries flank spot on both sides, helping contain it

• FX option implied volatility eases from Wed's highs - still very close to recent 2026 lows - signals low volatility risk
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday July 9

• EUR/USD: 1.1370-75 (1.3BLN), 1.1395-1.1405 (2.5BLN), 1.1415 (350M), 1.1430-40 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1445-50 (1.4BLN), 1.1460-65 (1.8BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (381M), 0.8050 (442M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8580-85 (698M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (260M), 1.3320 (400M), 1.3400-05 (387M), 1.3440 (310M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6875-80 (942M), 0.6890 (209M), 0.6900-05 (880M), 0.7000-15 (1.3BLN)

• NZD/USD: 0.5650 (578M). USD/CAD: 1.4150 (200M), 1.4200 (795M)

• USD/JPY: 160.95-161.00 (1BLN), 162.00 (1.1BLN), 163.00 (2.1BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 180.00 (1BLN). AUD/JPY: 112.60 (200M)

• Wednesday's FX options wrap - Iran shock, muted response (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY remains on 162 on US-Iran hostilities, Asia 162.37-60 EBS

• Some early selling but has since subsided with Nikkei up some post-TSE open

• Foreign buying of Japan stocks and related currency hedging demand

• Unflagging Japan importer demand too, retail/NISA-related demand too?

• Market heavy above 162.50 hourly Ichimoku tenkan? Support @162.39 kijun?

• Massive option expiries at 162.00, 163.00 to help contain spot action

• Possibility too of Japan FX intervention on more USD strength

• EUR/JPY buoyant with USD/JPY, 185.59-65 EBS, above 184.73-99 daily cloud

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 184.77-185.09 providing downside cushion

• GBP/JPY 217.37-80 after rally to 217.82 yesterday, best since January '08

• CHF/JPY sideways near base of 201.03-202.06 daily Ichi cloud, 200.68-201.25

• On hold above 200.66-94 hourly cloud, 100/200-HMAs in cloud at 200.90/72

• AUD/JPY 112.48-75, firmly in 111.82-113.58 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Holding above 112.33-43 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA at 112.32

• NZD/JPY 92.37-93.02, bid after RBNZ hike, hawkish stance yesterday

• To base of 93.03-73 daily Ichi cloud, support around 91.39 200-DMA confirmed

• Related comments , , also

• On flows , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


NZD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD holds gains in Asia after closing 0.2% higher on Wednesday

• U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil prices taken in stride

• Domestic focus returns; likely PM Burnham's finance minister pick eyed

• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey delivers annual Mansion House speech on Tuesday

• Traders await clues on Fed policy; Warsh's semiannual testimony next week

• Fed minutes show greater concern about high inflation in June meeting

• Strong resistance at 1.3400-10 under threat, break opens 1.3460

• Support 1.3350-55, 1.3325-30; Wed range 1.3323-1.3410, Asia 1.3389-1.3402
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)