ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD outlook around tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"This week is busy in NZ with the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday being the key event. We and the market expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. With OIS pricing only around a 20% probability of a 25bp hike, focus will be on the tone and extent to which the RBNZ updates its OCR track," ANZ notes.

"Our base case is for the RBNZ’s OCR track to bring forward the timing of rate hike expectations relative to February’s track, while the neutral rate remains at 3%. If realised, this would sit below market pricing (~3.4% implied by May 2026) and likely be interpreted as dovish. In that scenario, the NZD/USD would likely drift modestly lower on the day. In the unlikely event of a 25bp hike, we would likely see a sharp rally in the pair and see 0.5950 tested," ANZ adds.