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Nov 06 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Traders Won't Sell, Bet Pair Drops
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 06 - 03:55 AM

The reluctance of traders to short EUR/USD is an instrumental factor supporting its continuing decline nL2N27M066.
The EUR/USD fall continues to buck the expectations of economists, who have continually forecast a rally this year and is clearly surprising the many traders who have consistently bought dips.
While traders and economists look up EUR/USD is likely to extend the drop nL2N27M05S.
Few have bet on a drop all year, with the biggest bets in 2019 much smaller than bets that have made a distinct impression on trends in the past.
Bets now are perhaps a third or even a quarter of those that put the brakes on prior downtrends.
Yet moves in the past were not supported by interest rates as they are today.
The lack of will to invest in a EUR/USD carry trade is amazing.
Those that did so in January could have made 6% to 7%.
EUR/USD may have even more downside potential next year.
As long as traders don't sell, they are helping EUR/USD to fall.


EURUSD vol and forwards Click here

EURUSD shorts Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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