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Oct 25 - 09:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Vulnerable As The Good News Is Priced In

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 25 - 08:16 PM

Sterling faces plenty of upcoming event risk, while most of the good news is already priced in.

The UK budget will be delivered on Wednesday, but against tradition nL8N2RL540, the government has pre-released the major components: an increase in the mininum wage to 9.50 pounds an hour nL8N2RL434, a 6 billion pound package to boost health service capacity nL8N2RK0E5, and 8 billion pounds of extra health and education spending nL1N2RJ0GN.

There is some controversy over how much of the spending is fresh money, but its early release suggests a modest sterling impact.

Money markets price in a Bank of England rate rise on Nov 4, but recent data was mixed with strong PMIsnZRN0030U9and soft retail sales nL8N2RI1F6 and consumer confidence nL8N2RH2HA. BoE rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro indicated Monday she is in no rush to raise rates, as the end of the government's furlough scheme plays out nL8N2RL4BP.

Brexit minister David Frost believes the European Union's Northern Ireland proposals don't go far enough, as the tortuous negotiations continue, with an unlikely trade war still on the table nL8N2RL55Y.

Technically the GBP/USD bias is higher, but major resistance caps and pivotal support is close.

The 1.3831 level, 50% of the 2021 fall, proved resilient resistance last week.
The 10- and 21-day moving averages climb and 21-day Bollinger bands expand - a positive setup while the very close 1.3749 10-DMA holds.

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gbp Oct 26 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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