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Dec 01 - 01:55 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Should Power Through RBA-Inspired Underperformance

By Christopher Romano  —  Dec 01 - 11:40 AM

AUD/USD rose on Tuesday and could keep adding to gains even though the RBA's dovish message overnight put it behind the pace set by some other advancing major currencies.

The RBA reiterated it was unlikely to raise the cash rate for at least three years and it was prepared to provide more stimulus if needed nL1N2IH078.

But, to risk-sensitive AUD/USD's benefit, equities and commodities rallied sharply, with U.S. stocks .SPX setting record highs, as investors expected vaccine roll-outs to help the global economy recover.
AUD/USD is typically correlated to those risk asset and should be underpinned should the rallies persist.

Broad based U.S. dollar weakness should encourage AUD/USD longs.
The dollar index =USD hit a 32-month low after consolidation of the March-September decline completed and the 76.4% Fibo of 88.25-102.99 broke.
The consolidation completion suggests the U.S. dollar faces significant weakness nL1N2IH16F.

AUD/USD technicals highlight upside risks.
Though near overbought, daily and monthly RSIs imply bullish momentum remains.
AUD/USD also trades above the rising 10- and 21-day moving averages.
AUD/USD is also close to completing its own consolidation phase of the March-September rally, suggesting it could test key 0.8125/65 resistance.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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