Citi flags a scope for NZD to weaken into the NZ September 19 election.
“NZD has displayed no particularly strong anomalies related to elections, but has tended to weaken against the USD over the four or five weeks prior to past elections.
Since the 1987 election, the NZD has not strengthened particularly during this period. This time, the coalition government led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern looks likely to win, and the market may react negatively to the increasing risk that the Labour Party may win an outright majority," Citi notes.
"We would think that around early August, ahead of the September 19 election, would be the time to consider shorting NZD," Citi adds.