Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
Oct 19 - 11:55 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Remains Vulnerable After September Jobs Miss

By John Noonan  —  Oct 19 - 11:20 PM

The Australian dollar remains vulnerable in the short term and Wednesday's big miss on new jobs in September's employment report is just one factor weighing on the currency.

The data suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia was justified in scaling back the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points from 50 this month.

Unless Australia's Q3 CPI to be released next week is above expectations, it seems unlikely that the Australian central bank will be opting for any more jumbo hikes in this cycle.

The outlook for the U.S.Federal Reserve is far more hawkish, with the market pricing in two more 75 bps hikes before the end of 2022.

Central bank expectations aside, it will be hard for the AUD/USD to rally sustainably while asset markets remain sluggish and growth forecasts for China getdowngraded as they persist with strict COVID containment policies.

The AUD/USD will likely test the 2022 trend low at 0.6170 and a break targets the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2021 rise at 0.6099. Only a break above the 21-day moving average at 0.6392 would suggest the downtrend has run its course.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2022 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!