FX traders looking to get long USD/CHF should be mindful of the June seasonal trend analysis that suggests underlying fragility.
They should focus on the fundamental and technical clues as to whether this currency pair is likely to buck its tendency to fall this month or not.
A study of USD/CHF's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has dropped in 16 of the last 21 years, 76% of the time.
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool when combined with other factors.
Those expecting a bout of risk aversion could consider going short of USD/CHF, as funds will likely flow into the franc that is considered a safe-haven currency.
Fourteen-week momentum has turned negative last week, a technical signal that the outlook is becoming more negative.
However, the downside has been limited due to solid support near the medium-term 0.8927 Fibonacci level, a 76.4% retrace of the 0.8759 to 0.9472 2021 rise.
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