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Jun 26 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Month-End Downside Risk Could Increase

By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 26 - 04:00 AM

Month-end activity could put downside pressure on the EUR as a combination of rebalancing, haven plays and stranded PMI-driven longs shape price action.

This week's jittery risk markets have helped underpin dollar demand.
As rising U.S. coronavirus cases cast doubts over the growth outlook, EUR/USD could come under further pressure next week.

Monday's 1.1168 low could prove pivotal.
Short-term profit-taking is likely on the approach but a clear break below could be a significant blow to the EUR.
A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is just ahead of the June 22 low at 1.1172 and a break here would put the key 50% level at 1.1095 into play.
The Fibonacci levels are taken off the 1.0767 May 7 low and June 10 1.1422 high.

The EUR could also be at risk from a daily Ichimoku cloud twist out to July 1 at 1.0895-1.0913; cloud twists can attract prices.
It's possibly too far from market to provide a target before month-end, but the twist could still pull on the market.

EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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