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By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 12 - 09:45 AM

EUR/USD erased meager overnight gains and turned lower Friday, with a growing list of bearish influences increasing the probability support near 1.0500 will come into play.

China's March trade balance indicated a sharp reduction in exports and a drop in imports, which fueled concerns that global economic growth, which the euro zone depends on, remains unstable.

The prospect of a worsening economy in the euro zone could lead the ECB to adopt a more dovish monetary policy going forward.

Potentially rising tensions in the middle east have investors seeking out safer assets.

import price increases in March
could add to investor views the Fed may delay rate cuts.

Those factors have safe havens such as the dollar, gold and U.S. Treasuries gaining while riskier assets take big hits.

The potential for the ECB to cut ahead of and more than the Fed increased the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.
2-year spreads US2DE2=RR widened and neared the base of the range they've been in since September.

Should geopolitical tensions flare-up and spreads break the range base, EUR/USD's slide could intensify as investors opt for the safety of the U.S.

EUR/USD shorts could then have the confidence to push the pair towards 1.0450/1.0500.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 12 - 10:00 AM


Following the uneventful April ECB meeting, Credit Agricole anticipates an early and more aggressive rate-cutting cycle by the ECB compared to the Fed, signaling a significant shift in EUR/USD dynamics. Despite the ECB's steady stance at the meeting, where ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated previous messages, the broader context of global economic conditions and recent U.S. inflation data may pave the way for diverging monetary policies.

Key Points:

  • ECB Steadiness Amid U.S. Inflation Surge: The ECB's consistent message in April, despite surging U.S. inflation figures in March, suggests a cautious but separate policy path from the Fed. This steadfast approach, amidst a volatile global financial landscape, highlights the ECB's commitment to independent decision-making.

  • Implications of Fed's Policy on ECB Decisions: While the ECB maintains its independence, the less dovish stance from the Fed and its impact on global financial conditions could indirectly influence the Eurozone's economic outlook, particularly in relation to the EUR/USD exchange rate.

  • Anticipated ECB Rate Cuts: Despite historical trends where the ECB has not led the Fed in easing monetary policy, Credit Agricole now expects the ECB to initiate earlier and more substantial rate cuts. This anticipated policy shift is seen as a major factor that could negatively impact the EUR/USD throughout the year.


Credit Agricole's analysis post-ECB April meeting suggests a notable shift in the ECB's forthcoming monetary policy, with expected rate cuts that could precede and exceed those of the Fed. This divergence is poised to influence the EUR/USD exchange negatively, marking a critical development in Eurozone financial strategies.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 12 - 09:33 AM


Bank of America has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, now forecasting only one rate cut in December 2024. The bank's assessment points to more persistent inflationary pressures than previously anticipated, prompting a delay in the expected easing of monetary policy.

Key Points:

  • Delayed Rate Cuts: Initially anticipating multiple rate cuts this year, BofA has adjusted its outlook to just one in December, citing recent inflation trends that do not support earlier cuts.
  • Inflation Trends: The first quarter of 2024 witnessed an annualized core CPI inflation rise to 4.5%, a significant increase from 3.3% at the end of 2023. This trend suggests that inflation pressures are more entrenched than expected, diminishing the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term unless there is a marked deterioration in the labor market.
  • Higher Terminal Rate: Reflecting on stronger economic indicators, BofA now anticipates a higher terminal rate for the Fed funds, adjusting its 2026 forecast up by 50 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75%. This adjustment accounts for potential growth impacts from an expanding labor force, persistent inflation, and fiscal deficits.


Bank of America's updated forecast underscores a cautious stance towards the Federal Reserve's path forward, with a single rate cut projected for December 2024. This outlook reflects growing concerns over sustained inflationary pressures that may require a more restrictive monetary policy than previously anticipated. As such, financial markets may need to adjust expectations for a less accommodative Fed in the near to medium term.

BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 12 - 07:15 AM
  • AUD/USD hit 0.6543, barely pierced the 200-DMA then the pair fell sharply

  • Downside surprise to China March trade fueled econ growth worries, hit risk

  • USD/CNH hit 7.2680 (D3), stocks ESv1 gave back much of Thursday's gains

  • US$ gains on safe-have bid, US yields US10YT=RR fell on the safety bid

  • AUD/USD fell despite commodities DCIOc2HGv1XAU= making solid gains

  • AUD/USD traded 0.6490 in early NY, traded down -0.70% early in the session

  • Techs are bearish; RSIs fall, pair below daily cloud, 10-,21-,55-,200-DMAs

  • Consecutive monthly gravestone doji candles reinforce bearish signals

  • US March exp/imp prices, April U of Michigan survey are data risks in NY

  • Remarks from Fed's Schmid, Bostic, Daly may impact risk during NY hours

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Apr 12 - 05:50 AM
  • Cable now trading at lowest level since Nov 2023 after 1.25 break

  • Given build up of positions between 1.26-1.28, GBP longs are offside

  • Position cleansing of longs can fuel deeper setback

  • Little in the way of support until 1.2430-50

  • Resistance at 200-DMA (1.2584) as break below holds - retest capped

  • Watch daily close. Below 1.25 would add to downside momentum

  • Next week is key for GBP - UK CPI, jobs and retail sales data due

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 12 - 04:55 AM

Speculators who bought almost 20 billion euros when they were gambling on the currency's rise in December had unwound almost the entire position before this week's meeting of the European Central Bank - and that really matters.

Traders bought low and sold high - they made money - and since selling out of these positions, the euro has fallen further reaching a fresh 2024 low at 1.0674 EBS in the wake of the central bank meeting.

A lot is being made of the unlikely possibility of a great divergence between U.S. and eurozone monetary policy which could drive EUR/USD toward parity.
While not impossible this is highly unlikely, and speculators who have traded very well likely know this.

Instead of selling low and try to profit from a rather unlikely outcome, traders who profited from betting on a rise might buy lower, and return to the positions that have rewarded them.

This is the more logical trade and it is in keeping with an uptrend that has endured since September 2022 - and specs know the trend is their friend.
This trend has been refreshed by a fairly modest correction, and without big bets to restrain it, EUR/USD may rise again.

Flight to safety may change the face of FX markets.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Apr 12 - 04:30 AM
  • EUR set for a fourth down day after racking up a new 2024 low: 1.0674

  • Last retracement level off 1.0448-1.1139 is at 1.0611

  • Beginning to look a little stretched and rebounds the Friday risk

  • Daily RSI reading of 32 and slow stochs over extended

  • Weekly action now clear inside the Ichimoku cloud: top res. 1.0779

  • Our 1.0845 offer stranded and we will look to set a new strategy

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Apr 12 - 03:05 AM
  • EUR/GBP drops to 0.8533 as EUR/USD slides through 1.07 to five-month low

  • 0.8533 is two-week low (0.8532 was March 29 low). 0.8542 was Thursday's low

  • Expectation of ECB interest rate cut in June is weighing on the euro

  • BoE is not expected to cut rates until Q3. EUR/GBP bear targets include 0.85

  • UK Feb GDP up 0.1%, as expected. UK Jan GDP revised up by 0.1% to 0.3%

  • Former Fed chief Bernanke to set out BoE reforms at 1100 GMT nL5N3GK4QN

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 12 - 03:00 AM
  • EUR/USD drops below 2024 low at 1.0695 reaching 1.0682 EBS

  • Break will spur tech related selling and likely move into short positions

  • Break of 1.0650 - 76.4% 2023-24 rise would target 1.0517

  • Drop below 1.0596 would target 1.0448 - base ahead Sep-Dec surge

  • Gold surged to a record high shortly ahead USD's rise nL2N3GL0C9

  • Uncertainty about US rate path will support USD nL2N3GK0EY

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 11 - 11:25 PM
  • Unchanged after trading in a tight but occasionally busy 1.2550-1.2558 range

  • UK's monthly data dump led by industrial production and trade figures

  • The data will provide the BoE with a snapshot of the UK's economic health

  • Former Fed chief Bernanke to announce the new Bank of England reforms

  • Techs; 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages fall with 21-day Bollinger bands

  • Daily momentum studies slip - Wednesday's fall left a bearish daily setup

  • GBP poised above long-term 1.2500 support- close below bearish for next week

  • 1.2578 New York high and this week's 1.2709 top are initial resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 11 - 04:30 PM


BNNP revises its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, now anticipating only two rate cuts in 2024, down from the previously expected three. This adjustment follows the March CPI report, which showcased a third consecutive month of core inflation surpassing expectations, particularly within non-shelter services. The persistence of inflationary pressures, especially in the services sector, suggests a slower pace of disinflation than previously anticipated.

Key Points:

  • March CPI Concerns: The March CPI report's detail, particularly the robust non-shelter services inflation, underscores the challenges facing the Fed in curbing inflation, leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
  • Inflation Forecast Adjustment: BNPP has increased its core CPI and core PCE inflation forecasts for 2024 to 3.4% and 2.8% (quarter-over-quarter), respectively, indicating a more gradual disinflation path.
  • Revised Fed Call: The bank now expects the Fed to initiate two rate cuts in 2024, specifically in July and December, moving away from its previous prediction of three cuts in June, September, and December.
  • June Rate Cut Unlikely: Given the recent CPI data, BNPP deems a rate cut in June as untenable, expecting the Fed to delay easing until inflation shows clearer signs of moderation.


BNPP's revision of its Federal Reserve rate cut forecast reflects growing concerns over persistent inflation, particularly within the services sector. The March CPI report's implications suggest a more cautious approach to monetary easing, with only two rate cuts now anticipated in 2024. This adjustment highlights the challenges in achieving a swift return to the Fed's inflation target, underscoring the need for continued vigilance in monitoring inflation dynamics.

BNP Paribas Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Apr 11 - 11:15 PM

Adds disclaimer, subscriber code

  • AUD/USD opened +0.38% @ 0.6538 as China stimulus hopes supported iron ore

  • It traded a narrow range in Asia due to a lack of catalysts to spark flows

  • AUD/USD just below a raft of key moving averages - which cap for now

  • The 10, 21, 55 & 200-day MAs converge between 0.6543/56 and proving sticky

  • Bids tipped between 0.6475/0.6500 with support at the 0.6443 Feb 13 low

  • Mixed fundamentals are keeping AUD/USD in a trading range

  • Rising US yields and hawkish turn in Fed expectations weighing on AUD/USD

  • Strong rise in iron ore supports, with Dalian iron ore up 13% in 7 days

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Apr 11 - 09:20 PM
  • USD/KRW trudges higher to 1368.7 from Thurs close 1364.1

  • Base of Bollinger uptrend channel rises to support 1356.4

  • Notches a new 1.5-year high despite BOK holding base rate

  • Bank of Korea rate decision Fri as expected nL3N3GI12L

  • Easing only expected in the second half of 2024 nL3N3GH0W1

  • USD/KRW also ignores USD/JPY slide on intervention threats

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 11 - 07:55 PM
  • Steady after closing up 0.1% as EUR/GBP slipped 0.25% on the dovish ECB

  • Bank of England's Greene said UK rate cuts should be 'a way off'

  • Green believes UK's persistence of inflation pressure is worse than the US

  • Likely quiet in Asia ahead of the UK data dump today led by GDP and IP

  • Techs; 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages fall with 21-day Bollinger bands

  • Daily momentum studies slip - Wednesday's fall left a bearish daily setup

  • GBP poised above long-term 1.2500 support- close below bearish for next week

  • 1.2578 New York high and this week's 1.2709 top are initial resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 11 - 07:30 PM
  • -0.15% in a muted response to ECB maintaining a June rate cut is 'live'

  • Upcoming data and contained oil prices will be key for the June cut

  • Yield spreads tightened - 10yr bund +5bp to 2.477%, 10yr UST +3bp to 4.590%

  • Bunds climbed on the higher-for-longer outlook for U.S. interest rates

  • Charts - daily momentum studies fall, 21-day Bollinger bands slide

  • 5, 10, and 21-day moving averages slip - the daily charts are bearish

  • 1.0699 New York low and then 1.0695 2024 base are initial supports

  • 1.0756 early New York high then Wednesday's 1.0866 top first resistance

  • 1.0700 3.425 BLN and 1.0750 1.668 BLN close strikes for April 12th

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Apr 11 - 06:35 PM
  • AUD/USD Opens +0.38% after AUD was best performing currency Thursday

  • Hopes of China stimulus pushing up iron ore price and supporting AUD nL2N3GK0FI

  • AUD/USD capped at 0.6553 where moving averages provided resistance

  • The 10-day MA is at 0.6548 and the 21-day MA comes in at 0.6556

  • Bids around 0.6500 are supporting on dips for the time being

  • Support is at the Feb 13 low at 0.6443 with more bids at 0.6475/80

  • AUD/USD will likely track USD/CNH moves and sentiment in Asian equities

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 11 - 03:00 PM


The European Central Bank's (ECB) April policy meeting unfolded without significant surprises, aligning with Danske Bank's expectations and leaving minimal impact on the markets. The ECB's policy statement hinted at a potential rate cut in June, provided the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics, and the efficacy of monetary policy transmission bolster confidence in achieving the inflation target sustainably. Despite the muted market response to the meeting, Danske Bank maintains its forecast of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, with additional quarterly cuts anticipated through the end of 2025. However, there is a bias towards fewer cuts in 2024 due to persistent domestic inflation.

Key Points:

  • June Rate Cut Signal: The ECB's communication pointed towards a likely rate cut in June, contingent on favorable assessments of inflation and monetary policy effectiveness.
  • Market Response: The immediate market reaction was limited, with EUR/USD dipping slightly following the ECB's announcement but recovering after softer-than-expected US PPI data.
  • US Data Dominance: Current dynamics suggest US economic indicators are the primary drivers of EUR/USD movements, with recent data showing a substantial increase in long USD positions.
  • Short-term Outlook: Soft US data could potentially support a temporary strengthening of EUR/USD in the coming months.
  • Long-term Forecast: Despite potential short-term gains for EUR/USD, Danske Bank anticipates a downward trend over the year, driven by the relative economic strengths of the US and factors influencing inflation persistence.


The April ECB meeting solidified expectations for a forthcoming rate cut in June, aligning with Danske Bank's predictions. While immediate market reactions were subdued, the longer-term outlook for EUR/USD is bearish, influenced by the comparative economic resilience of the US and ongoing inflation trends. Danske Bank projects EUR/USD to decrease to 1.05 over a 12-month period, reflecting broader economic and financial conditions.

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Apr 11 - 02:20 PM
  • GBP$ ekes out gain +0.12% at 1.2556 into NY cls; Thurs range 1.2579-11

  • Pair soft into Lon fix, trades new 2024 low 1.2511 after ECB hold, US PPI

  • UST yields lower, but hover near post-CPI highs amid US-UK rate divergence

  • Trepidation accompanies stability for sterling nL2N3GK1M4

  • April 17 UK CPI/PPI in focus for hints at near-term BoE policy path

  • GBP$ res at 200-DMA 1.2586, 1.2610 50% Fib of 1.2709-1.2511, 1.2649 21-DMA

  • Support 1.2511 Thurs low, 1.2501 Dec 13 trend low, 1.2482 weekly base line

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 11 - 02:00 PM
  • NY opened near 1.0730, pair slid to 1.0715 then traded 1.07565 on EBS

  • Price action took hold after ECB statement, US PPI & weekly claims data

  • EUR/USD then hit a 2-month low during Lagarde presser, Fed rate cut rhetoric

  • 1.0699 traded on EBS, buyers emerged however as risk shifted upward

  • US yields US2YT=RR softened while stocks ESv1, gold XAU= rallied

  • EUR/USD neared 1.0730, pair traded down only -0.13% late in the day

  • Rally away from Feb. low resulted in a bull hammer, a concern for shorts

  • Falling RSIs & April's monthly inverted hammer are concerns for longs

  • China March exports/imports, trade balance are data risks in Asia

  • US export/import prices, April U of Michigan are data risks in

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 11 - 01:50 PM
  • AUD/USD traded 0.6510-0.6553 in NY with swings driven by data, Fed speak

  • Early rally ensued after PPI, claims reports & US yields US2YT=RR softened

  • Pair slid back to NY lows with help from Fed rhetoric on rate cuts

  • Riskier assets then caught a bid as US$ softened; USD/CNH fell below 7.2545

  • Stock ESv1, gold XAU= rallies helped weigh down US$ a bit

  • AUD/USD traded above 0.6535 late, traded up +0.36% in NY's afternoon

  • Techs mixed a bit; RSIs rising but pair below slew of daily MAs, daily cloud

  • Monthly inverted hammer candles are likely concerns for AUD/USD longs

  • China March exports/imports, trade balance are data risks in Asia

  • US export/import prices, April U of Michigan are data risks in NY

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 11 - 01:30 PM


ING has adjusted its end-2024 EUR/USD forecast to 1.10, aligning with the consensus due to significant revisions in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Despite initial optimism for a favorable EUR/USD environment marked by lower US rates and slight global growth improvements, widening real interest rate spreads favoring the dollar and resilient US economic data have dampened these expectations. Consequently, ING has also decided to maintain its 2025 EUR/USD forecast at 1.10, citing the currency pair's proximity to its medium-term fair value and the uncertainties surrounding the US's monetary, fiscal, and trade policies.

Key Points:

  • Fed Profile Adjustments: Significant revisions in the Federal Reserve's outlook prompt a conservative adjustment in EUR/USD forecasts.
  • Stalled Expectations: The anticipation of EUR/USD gains in response to a Fed rate cut and global growth improvements has not materialized as expected.
  • Real Interest Rate Spreads: Widening spreads in favor of the dollar and strong US data have countered potential EUR/USD increases.
  • 2025 Outlook: The EUR/USD forecast for 2025 remains at 1.10, reflecting current fair value assessments and future US policy uncertainties.
  • USD/JPY Forecast: Adjustments to the USD/JPY forecast account for a potentially more hawkish Bank of Japan and the anticipated return of a term premium to US Treasury markets.


ING's revision of the EUR/USD forecast reflects a pragmatic response to evolving economic indicators and policy expectations, particularly from the US Federal Reserve. The adjustment acknowledges the complex interplay between real interest rate differentials, global equity market dynamics, and macroeconomic data, shaping a more cautious outlook for EUR/USD. With uncertainties looming over US policies in 2025, maintaining a stable forecast suggests a wait-and-see approach to future developments in currency markets.

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 11 - 12:10 PM
  • USD/JPY's 152+ breakout to 34-yr highs consolidates Wed's big gains

  • Price action remains bullish, with the small dip to 152.76 scooped up

  • Daily RSIs at 77 are O/B, but with no bearish divergence

  • The 21- and 30-day Bolli tops are now at 153.55/89

  • And a short-term 161.8% Fibo is also nearby at 153.78

  • But major Fibos from 2023 bases are key targets by 155.20

  • Daily tenkan and 10-DMA now reinforce pre-breakout highs by 152 as support

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 11 - 10:45 AM


ANZ forecasts a subdued outlook for GBP/USD in the upcoming week, attributing potential weakness to forthcoming CPI and employment data. Signs of slackening within the UK labor market, alongside expectations of softer average earnings, are poised to exert pressure on the GBP. However, recent responses to CPI data indicate that market reactions to weaker inflation figures have become more muted, suggesting an acceptance of the declining inflation trend. Despite this, dovish signals from the Bank of England (BoE) meetings retain the capacity to impact GBP negatively.

Key Points:

  • Labor Market Cooling: Emerging indicators hint at a gradual softening in the UK job market, with rising jobless claims and forecasts of dampened employment growth, albeit PMI employment metrics remain stable.
  • Wage and CPI Data Influence: The forthcoming average earnings report is anticipated to impact GBP, reflecting the importance of wage dynamics on currency valuations.
  • Muted CPI Reaction: A notable shift in market behavior shows less pronounced reactions to recent softer CPI figures, indicating a market adjustment to the expected downward inflation trajectory.
  • BoE's Role: While the direct influence of CPI data may be waning, dovish stances from the BoE continue to pose risks to GBP strength, underscoring the significance of central bank communications.


ANZ anticipates a challenging week for GBP/USD, driven by key economic releases that are unlikely to favor the GBP. Although market responses to inflation data have moderated, suggesting an acclimatization to lower inflation rates, the BoE's policy direction remains a critical factor for the GBP's performance. Investors and traders will need to monitor both economic indicators and central bank cues closely in the week ahead.

ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 11 - 09:45 AM

The small amount of interest rate divergence that's expected this year will not change EUR/USD much, and the greater split in policies required to really move the pair is highly unlikely.

Expected changes in rate differentials weighing EUR/USD are shifting toward 2 percent from 1.5 percent.
EUR/USD rose from close to 0.9500 toward 1.1300 regardless of a the prior divide in interest rates that was supporting the greenback, and has spent a long time largely within 1.05-1.10.

This pair rallied despite rates, and did so while traders were betting heavily on a rise.
With bullish bets slashed, and a short position likely to evolve given some big downside calls, EUR/USD may be better supported.

There is little chance that ECB policy diverges to a great degree with the Fed.
Most central banks have long followed the U.S. central bank and given the euro zone's trading ties with the United States, a split with tradition by a conservative institution like the ECB is most unlikely.

Without a big division, the best bearish traders might hope for is the gradual undermining effect that interest rates may have which could push EUR/USD toward the lower end of well trodden ranges.

Option vols have barely risen this week, and their low level suggests no big movement in any direction, anytime soon.
Should BOJ intervene to support the yen that could soon change with EUR/USD rising swiftly.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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