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Aug 21 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Tentative, Outlook Depends On PMIs, Fed

By Justin Mcqueen  —  Aug 21 - 12:00 PM

EUR/USD rose on Monday but was confined to a narrow (1.0871-1.0913) range after its brief foray above 1.09 fizzled in the face fresh cycle highs in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, leaving focus on eurozone PMIs and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

In light of the European data vacuum, EUR/USD has struggled for direction and thus the flash PMIs will be key in dictating the near-term outlook for the single currency.

growth outperformance has been among the factors that has weighed on the euro over the past month with the pair falling from the high 1.12s to the 1.08.
Therefore, the upcoming PMIs will be key to gauge whether there are more legs to the U.S. exceptionalism trade.

Elsewhere, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is due to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday and after two encouraging inflation reports supporting the disinflation narrative, the balance of risks looks to be leaning towards a less hawkish stance, which may offer the euro a reprieve come the end of the week.

From a technical perspective, a cluster of daily moving averages are likely to act as resistance between 1.0931 (100-DMA) and 1.0958 (55-DMA).
On the downside, support is situated at 1.0845 (August low).

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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