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Oct 14 - 11:55 AM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-Shrugging Off US Claims, AUD/USD Could Be Headed To 0.7600

By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 14 - 10:21 AM

AUD/USD rallied to a fresh 1-month high on Thursday, shrugging off below-forecast jobless claims data nL1N2R92XV that buoyed U.S. rates EDM2 and the U.S. currency, and the aussie may extend its gains toward 0.7600 with the help of Australian rates, positioning and technicals.

Though RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle nS9N2PN02E struck a somewhat dovish tone, Australian government 3-year yields remain near recent highs as rising commodity prices HGv1 and concerns about global inflation have left investors questioning the central bank's stance.

Last week's CFTC data showed net-short Aussie positions hit a new record nL1N2R42CM.
Investors holding those shorts may be frustrated with lack of downside progress and exiting.
An acceleration in those reductions would help AUD/USD break key obstacles.

AUD/USD broke above the 76.4% Fibo of the 0.74775-0.71705 September decline on its way to Thursday's 1-month high.
Daily and monthly RSIs are rising and are not overbought which implies upward momentum remains.

AUD/USD longs now target the 38.2% Fibo of the 0.8007-0.71065 decline and September monthly high.
Should those impediments break, reduction of short positions should intensify, potentially triggering stop losses.

The July monthly high at 0.7599 and likely 0.7600 barriers would then be targeted.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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