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Oct 02 - 02:55 PM

Barclays: RBA and RBNZ Policy Decisions - A Tightening Tilt Amid Resilient Data?

By eFXdata  —  Oct 02 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis: Barclays provides insights into the highly anticipated policy meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). While the decision to maintain the current rate stance is expected from both, the prevailing economic data hints at a potential inclination towards a tighter policy.

Key Highlights:

Central Banks in Focus: The financial community is eagerly awaiting the policy meetings scheduled in Australia on Tuesday and New Zealand on Wednesday. Both the RBA and RBNZ are predicted to maintain the status quo concerning rates.

Supporting Economic Landscape: Despite the anticipated "hold" decision, economic data coming out of both countries portrays a robust setting. This could incline both central banks towards more hawkish policy guidance.

Australia's Inflation Indications: An observable increase in Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August suggests inherent inflationary pressures. Such signs maintain the likelihood of a rate increment in the forthcoming months.

Data Releases - Australia: Several significant data releases are lined up for Australia:

  • Building Approvals (Tue): Reflecting the housing and construction market's health.
  • September Flash PMIs (Wed): An early indicator of the private sector's overall economic health.
  • August Trade Balance (Thu): Expected to depict a slight enhancement, indicating the difference between exports and imports.

Key Data - New Zealand: The August building permits release on Monday will be the primary data point under the spotlight for New Zealand. These permits serve as a precursor to future construction activity.

Closing Thoughts: Barclays emphasizes the importance of both the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings this week. While no immediate rate changes are anticipated, the underlying economic indicators, especially in Australia, might encourage a hawkish tilt in policy guidance. As such, market participants are advised to stay tuned to the data releases and central bank communications.

Barclays Research/Market Commentary


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