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Sep 01 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - REFILE-BUZZ-COMMENT-EUR/USD Longs Are Certainly Not What They Were

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Sep 01 - 04:55 AM

Adds they to headline

EUR/USD longs were a great bet, but recent buyers, and there have been many more of them, have seen far more modest returns.

Between June 22 and July 31, EUR/USD rose 740 pips.
The number of longs rose around EUR 6.5 billion in that period.
Since the end of August, EUR/USD has stretched the 2020 peak by 90 pips.
The number of bets on a rise has grown by a further 8 billion.

Bets on a rise are now bigger than any other EUR/USD gamble in history and every other similarly sized bet has had the same result, a meaningful correction.

That means it's worth taking profit and even top picking is worth consideration.
Those who short EUR/USD at current levels have a big point to shelter stops.
The top of the monthly Ichimoku cloud, which is a 50% retracement of the drop from 2014's high at 1.3995, is 1.2167 nL1N2FY06X.

In comparison, the minimum objective for a correction of this year's rise is 1.1477.


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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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