TD Research discusses its expectations for today's FOMC policy decision.

"We expect a 25bp rate hike at this week's FOMC meeting, and anticipate that post-meeting communication will: (i) emphasize that disinflation has been evolving slower than expected, and (ii) acknowledge the more uncertain economic environment, especially with regard to credit conditions post SVB collapse," TD notes.

"FX: Cautious rhetoric on lending conditions or confirmation that the Fed pauses should reinforce USD softness. But, it is a crowded trade so absent this and weak NFP, a 'higher for longer' mantra gains more credence and offers USD support," TD adds.