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Feb 12 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-US, UK CPI To Decide Whether Sterling Tests 2024 Lows

By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 12 - 09:40 AM

GBP/USD eased on Monday, keeping it mired in the lower end of its recent 1.2772-1.2518 range , while U.S. and UK CPI data on Tuesday and Wednesday could decide whether sterling might test its 2024 lows.

The recent broad dollar bid has weighed on GBP/USD, pushing the pound down near 1% in early 2024, though sterling has performed better than the euro which is -2.5%, and the yen which has fallen 5.8% versus the USD year-to-date.

The pound is capped by a confluence of short-term daily moving averages spanning 1.2638-1.2692 but has held its strength versus the dollar owing to persistently high UK inflation, which has kept BoE rate expectations above the U.S. in the near-term.

The upcoming inflation data could alter that view.

U.S.
Headline inflation is well below its 2022 highs, but it has been stuck in the low 3% area.
Core is forecast at 3.7%, down a touch but still well above the Fed's 2% target.

UK inflation also has come down significantly.
Should that progress continue GBP/USD is likely to test 2024 lows as BoE rate expectations adjust lower.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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