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Oct 15 - 11:55 AM

USD/JPY - COMMENT-U.S. Data, Relief And COVID Concerns To Keep USD/JPY Contained

By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 15 - 09:45 AM

An unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims nL1N2H51LO is feeding market angst regarding the potential for a pre-election pandemic relief bill nW1N2CF040.
Add in an unsettlingly rapid rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe and parts of the U.S. nL4N2H52AQ, and USD/JPY is under pressure via falling Treasury-JGB yield spreads and broad buying of haven yen against other currencies.

USD/JPY is being supported for a second session by the 50% Fibo of the September-October 104.00-6.11 EBS recovery at 105.05, and by today's massive $2.26 bln of 105.25 expiries nL1N2H60FF.
But tomorrow the largest expires are at 105 and 104.50, when U.S. retail sales will top the events calendar.
Philly Fed nZON000NDY and Empire State nN9N2E8013 data suggested a patchwork pandemic recovery persists, thus limiting the risk-off influence of the initial claims rise.

However, USD/JPY upside looks limited to resistance from Wednesday's high, the 30-day moving average and the tenkan at 105.51-57.
A close below 105 is now needed to shift the trading focus toward 104.50 expiries and the 76.4% Fibo there.

On the U.S. relief bill, anything agreed on between the Trump administration and the House needs to have the votes in the Senate to pass quickly, otherwise the issue will be resolved sometime after the election.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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