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Feb 09 - 10:55 AM

CIBC: Reaction to Today's US CPI Revisions - "Keep Calm and Move On"

By eFXdata  —  Feb 09 - 10:00 AM

Synopsis:

CIBC addresses the recent US CPI revisions for 2023, emphasizing that the updates confirm the ongoing disinflation trend observed over the last six months without significant changes to the level and change in CPI. The anticipation of potential surprises, similar to the unexpected adjustments in 2022, did not materialize, thanks to the re-emergence of pre-pandemic-like seasonal patterns in 2023, which minimized the risk of deviations.

Key Insights:

  • Disinflation Confirmation: The 2023 CPI revisions reaffirm the disinflation narrative, showing consistent levels and changes with prior data, indicating a steady path towards lower inflation rates.

  • Anticipated Concerns: There were concerns among FOMC officials regarding possible surprises in the CPI revisions, similar to those experienced in 2022. However, these concerns were unfounded this year.

  • Seasonal Patterns: The return of pre-pandemic seasonal patterns in 2023 played a key role in ensuring that the CPI revisions did not bring about unexpected changes, thus reducing the risk of alterations that could impact monetary policy perceptions.

Conclusion:

CIBC's commentary on the recent US CPI revisions underscores a continuation of the disinflation trend without any significant surprises. The stabilization of seasonal patterns has contributed to a more predictable inflation trajectory, aligning with previous observations and easing concerns about potential deviations that could influence monetary policy decisions.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary

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