• AUD/USD has traded a 21.5 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7007-0.70285

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.70041-0.7043 range

• RBA rate decision on Tuesday (0430 GMT); 25 bps increase expected

• AUD might strengthen if RBA delivers hawkish hike

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose 20% to 46,814 contracts in week to Sept 22

• 46,814 contracts is largest net AUD short position since December 2025

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of US-listed gold miners fall premarket as bullion prices slip

• Spot gold down 3.2% at $4,149.89 per ounce, hitting its lowest since August 5

• Higher oil prices stoke inflation fears and strengthen expectations for further Fed rate hikes [GOL/]

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively

• US-listed shares of South African miners AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater drop between 6% and 5% each

• US-listed shares of Canadian miner Kinross Gold

down 4.7%

(Reporting by Kanishka Ajmera in Bengaluru) ((mail to: ))

• Cable extends north to threaten 1.3274 as USD falls vs yen on Mimura

• Japan's top FX diplomat urges markets to heed "very clear" warning on yen

• 1.3274 is a former support point (July 28 low). 1.3225 was Asia low

• Resistance levels beyond 1.3274 include 1.3300 and 1.3322 (Sept 22 low)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 40% to 82,568 contracts in week to Sept 22

• 82,568 contracts is largest net GBP short position since early July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 22 pip range since 2000 GMT Sunday; 1.3225-1.3247

• Those parameters are well within Friday's 1.3211-1.3263 range

• USD supported by higher oil prices (US is net energy exporter; UK net importer)

• BoE's Bailey said high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold

• UK finance minister Healey to address Labour Party conference today

• PM Burnham says it is crucial to have stability in UK public finances

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Monday 28 September

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (679M), 1.1310-20 (770M), 1.1335-45 (446M)

• 1.1350-60 (2.5BLN), 1.1370-80 (1.0BLN), 1.1400 -05 (4.7BLN)

• 1.1415-20 (2.7BLN), 1.1525-35 (1.9BLN), 1.1450-60 (2.6BLN)

• 1.1465-75 (1.6BLN), 1.1480-85 (1.1BLN), 1.1500-10 (4.9BLN)

• 1.1525-35 (786M), 1.1540-50 (3.1BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD remains under to start the week as US yields inch higher in Asia

• US 30-yr yield +1bp, hovers near 22-yr high; 10-yr +2 bps, nears 18-yr peak

• Boosted by upbeat economic data, inflation concerns, Fed rate expectations

• US crude +1% in Asia as Trump rejects Iran peace plan, weighs on GBP

• UK's Burnham says it is crucial to have stability in public finances

• Support 1.3180, 1.3140-1.3160 March-June lows; resistance 1.3260-65, 1.3300

• Friday range 1.3211-1.3263, Asia 1.3225-1.3262
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of BOA Resources surge 33.3% to A$0.14, their highest since September 2022

• Mineral explorer reports high-grade copper find at its Neds Creek Copper Project in the Murchison, Western Australia (WA)

• 4.8 mln shares change hands, 5.4 times the 30-day average

• Stock up 350% this year, including the day's moves

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• XAU/USD down 1.3% Monday as longer-dated US yields surge to multi-year highs

• US 30-year yield hit fresh 22-yr high, 10-yr reached 18-year high on Friday

• Boosted by upbeat economic data, inflation concerns, Fed rate expectations

• Higher oil weighs; US crude +1.3% in Asia as Trump rejects Iran peace plan

• Support at $4230, 61.8% of June-August gives way as gold falls to 7-week low

• Support 4200 and 4170; resistance 4260-4270, 4300

• Friday range 4254-4316, Asia 4214-4278
XAU:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.25% early Mon as month-long slide continues to extend

• Pair down cumulative 5.6% since Aug 21, targeting 0.5627 ytd low short term

• Brent crude +1.6% to $105.98 a barrel after Trump rejects Iran proposal

• U.S.-Iran war resolution still elusive as negotiations yield scant progress

• U.S. Aug durable goods beat expectations Fri at 0.0% m/m (poll -0.4% m/m)

• Range NZ 0.56495-62, support 0.5627 0.5581, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH might consolidate as weighty USD/JPY drags peers

• Last 6.7238, but may ebb to 6.7186 base of uptrend channel

• Underneath that support, 21 DMA 6.7115 is next technical floor

• USD/JPY slid late Fri on US-Japan call on FX

• Bessent and Katayama agree weak yen a concern, to cooperate more

• US, China agree to mutual $30 bln cuts in tariffs
CNH

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon as sentiment continues to languish despite hawkish RBA

• RBA meeting outcome due Tue, 25 bps hike widely expected, dialogue key

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.4% m/m, +4.0% y/y

• Resolution of U.S.-Iran war no closer, deep divisions hampering negotiation

• Break below 0.7025 200-DMA sets scene for move toward 0.6920 support zone

• U.S. Aug durable goods beat expectations Fri at 0.0% m/m (poll -0.4% m/m)

• Range Asia 0.7008-205 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec short 52,334 contracts as of Tuesday versus short of 26,993 contracts previous week

• JPY net spec long 71,982 contracts vs long of 120,359 the previous week

• GBP net spec short 82,568 vs short of 58,715 previous week

• AUD net spec short 46,814 vs short of 38,906 previous week

• MXN net spec long 75,167 vs long of 87,782 contracts

• CHF net spec short 26,752 vs short of 28,988 contracts

• CAD short 53,210 vs short of 37,577 previous week
EUR position Sept 25 2026

(Burton Frierson)

• NY opened near 0.7025 after 0.7004 traded overnight, pair fell early

• USD/CNH lift to 6.7256, drop in stocks, gold, silver & firm US yields weighed

• 0.7015 was neared but the pair then rallied as USD, US yields softened

• Stocks, gold, silver lifted & USD/CNH slid from its high; AUD/USD neared 0.7045

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7035 as of this writing, traded up +0.30% in NY's afternoon

• Pair's hold above 61.8% Fib of 0.6867-0.7238, move above 200-DMA comforts bulls

• Daily RSI diverged on today's low which also gives bulls some encouragement
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research sees a scope for USD/CHF to rally into the Fed October meeting.

"The SNB slightly tweaked its currency stance, removing the reference to an "increased willingness" to intervene while retaining its commitment to act when necessary. While this grabbed headlines, it is merely an adjustment reflecting the franc’s recent weakness and does not imply any reluctance to intervene again should the currency appreciate. Market pricing remains too hawkish in our view, and that is what matters most for the Swiss franc. A hike is already fully priced in by March, but we still see few reasons to tighten policy in the foreseeable future," ING notes.

"We think downside risks remain for the franc, with EUR/CHF potentially retesting the 0.9480 highs seen earlier in September. USD/CHF is probably where the upside potential is even greater at this point: an October hike from the Federal Reserve could prompt a rally to 0.85 in the near term," ING adds.

• NY opened near 1.1395 after 1.1369 traded overnight, choppy trade then ensued

• 1.1411 traded early as the USD sold off while gold and silver rallied

• Softer US yields , tighter spreads help the pair's lift

• Equity gains and USD/CNH's pull back from its 6.7256 high helped boost EUR/USD

• EUR/USD neared 1.1390 in NY's afternoon as USD lifted & gold, silver softened

• The pair traded up +0.11% in NY's afternoon which helped daily techs lean bullish

• Daily RSI is rising and a rally followed Thursday's daily doji candle

• Falling monthly RSI & EUR/USD's hold below the 10-DMA are bearish signs however
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees intervention risks intact on a move towards 160.

"USD/JPY has potentially settled back into the 155- 160 range given the failure of the exchange rate to decisively break the 155 level. There is still the threat of FX intervention by the BoJ on a move back towards 160 in USD/JPY, in our view," CACIB njotes.

"In the coming week, US core PCE and non-farm payrolls data as well as Japan Tankan and Tokyo CPI data will be key drivers of the JPY along with global energy prices. Accelerating Tokyo headline, core and core-core inflation back above the BoJ’s 2% target will keep pressure on the central bank to raise rates further. The central bank would remain cautious in raising rates, however, if the Tankan data were to show a weakening economy.

Investors will remain cautious about pushing USD/JPY back above the 160 level for fear of intervention by the BoJ," CACIB adds.

EUR/USD bulls found some relief on Friday as the dollar experienced broad-based selling, offering a reprieve from the pair's recent downtrend. Investors holding long positions are now hoping that Wednesday's U.S. August PCE report will align with signals from inflation rate markets, which suggest price growth is not spiraling out of control.

Indeed, U.S. inflation rate markets have been trending downward for two weeks, currently sitting closer to the midpoint of their longer-term ranges. Specifically, the U.S. 2-year

and 5-year inflation breakeven rates, along with the 2-year , 5-year , and 10-year inflation-linked swaps, are all trading within the 2.35% to 2.60% zone. While these rates remain above the Fed's 2.0% target, the longer-term trend appears to be moving in that direction.

The key data point to watch is August core PCE, which is estimated to increase to +0.3% from July's +0.2%. Should the actual result come in below estimates, U.S. interest rate investors may need to adjust their expectations for Fed rate hikes. This could cause the September 2027 SOFR futures price—a proxy for the Fed's terminal rate—to rally, while U.S. Treasury two-year yields could fall, potentially tightening U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads .

A resulting slump in U.S. interest rates could trigger dollar selling, squeezing EUR/USD shorts and pushing the pair toward key short-term resistance near 1.1550, and possibly the 200-day moving average around 1.1620.

Conversely, an above-estimate PCE reading would likely rally both interest rates and the dollar, potentially driving EUR/USD below its June and July monthly lows.
usinfswp


usbei


eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD Index (DXY) technical outlook.

"In 2026, DXY made higher highs and lows, formed a head-and-shoulders base, confirmed a post-Fed double bottom and has tracked a bullish 2018 trend. It has not broken the secular uptrend since 2008 to signal a bear cycle," BofA notes.

"We seek a Sept-Nov rally to 102.50 (new YTD highs). This would strengthen the case for a larger bull cycle and an aggressive wave pattern that points DXY above 115. Failure to make new highs, or invalidation of the YTD bottom patterns, would instead favor a bearish wave pattern toward the 87s," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses GBP/USD outlook for the coming week.

"We expect the BoE to deliver a shallow tightening cycle, with 25bp hikes in November and February taking the Bank Rate to 4.25%, a profile that is broadly consistent with current market pricing. As a result, additional inflation concerns are unlikely to provide sustained support for GBP. Instead, markets are likely to remain focused on the UK's fiscal outlook ahead of next month's Budget and the relative policy outlook versus the US. With much of the BoE tightening story already priced in and growth momentum appearing soft, risks skew towards GBP/USD weakness," ANZ notes.

"GBP/USD is trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, while the RSI has moved into oversold territory and MACD remains negative. We see any tactical upside in GBP/USD next week as an opportunity to sell. Support is located near 1.3163, with a break exposing the pair around 1.31. Resistance is at 1.33 and 1.338," ANZ adds.

• A fresh 2-month low of 0.7004 traded in Asia on USD & USD/CNH gains

• Buyers emerged however as USD softened, US yields

moved down

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper & equities contributed to the USD selling theme

• AUD/USD rallied above the 200-DMA, hit 0.7033 early NY, traded up +0.30%

• Today's price reversal has daily technicals flashing warnings to bears

• Daily RSI diverged on the low & a daily bull hammer candle formed

• Monthly inverted hammer, falling monthly RSI give bears comfort though
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has fallen from 158.89 to 157.66, on Friday so far

• Yen bounces from three-week low on intervention rhetoric

• PM Takaichi: Trump said in the summit meeting that weak yen is pressuring US trade

• Earlier Fin Min Katayama flagged Trump's concern over weak yen in summit with Takaichi

• Katayama: this reaffirmed the shared US-Japan stance behind July's joint intervention

• A Friday close back below 158.62 Fibo, after closing above on Thursday, would be a "bull trap"

• The 158.62 level is a 76.4% retrace 160.39-152.89 (September) EBS drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Fixed-income sell-off remains the dominant driver across G10 FX, keeping the USD firmly in the driver’s seat

• As the chart highlights, any further upside in US yields leaves gold, SEK, NZD and CHF most at risk

• The US 10-year yield is firmly above 5%, but the bigger concern is the rate of change, not the level itself

• If this momentum persists, it reinforces the USD bid and risks tipping broader markets into a risk-off tone

• In that scenario, expect gold, SEK and NZD to come under renewed selling pressure
FX sensitivity to US yields

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Japanese exporter sales capped USD/JPY ahead of 159 in Asia

• Fin Min Katayama flagged Trump's concern over weak yen in summit with PM Takaichi

• USD/JPY suffers a setback as a result, down from 158.89 to 157.95, on Friday so far

• A Friday close back below 158.62 Fibo, after closing above on Thursday, would be a "bull trap"

• A bull trap is set when spot breaks above a level but quickly reverses and is usually bearish

• The 158.62 level is a 76.4% retrace 160.39-152.89 (September) EBS drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds story link to para 3 )

Sept 25 (Reuters) - FX options markets are flashing a clear warning sign this week: demand and premium for EUR put/USD call options have risen sharply, with 1.1300 strikes drawing particular attention. These options give holders the right — but not the obligation — to sell EUR/USD at a preset strike and expiry date, and the concentration of interest around 1.1300 is no coincidence.

The level carries technical significance. June's low, and the pair's weakest point since May 2025, sits at 1.1325, just above the psychologically important 1.1300 handle. Barrier and trigger options clustered at 1.1300 now hold the key to whether declines extend meaningfully further, making this strike a genuine inflection point for spot.

1.1300 EUR put/USD call options stand to gain in value on two fronts simultaneously. First, a break in spot below the strike would allow holders to exercise their right to sell EUR/USD at 1.1300 — a level above prevailing market prices — directly increasing the option's intrinsic value. Second, implied volatility matters just as much. Since future volatility is unknowable, implied vol acts as the market's proxy and is a key driver of option premium. It has already risen across the FX complex from long-term lows amid the latest leg of dollar strength, independently boosting option prices even before spot moves — and it would be expected to climb further still as EUR/USD falls, particularly on any break below 1.1300, adding a self-reinforcing tailwind to the move.

Risk reversals — which measure the implied volatility skew between equivalent EUR puts and calls — reinforce this picture. They have jumped sharply in favor of EUR puts over calls, reflecting stronger demand for the right to sell euros versus buy them, consistent with a market positioning for lower EUR/USD.

The shift has been swift. Risk reversals sat close to neutral heading into last week's Fed decision, with only a modest downside premium immediately afterward. Since then, the benchmark 1-month 25-delta risk reversal has climbed close to the late-July peak of 0.9 — a level not seen since April.

Any break below 1.1300 might ultimately prove temporary, but an initial break could still trigger sharper, faster declines before any recovery — precisely the scenario these hedges are designed to reward and protect against. That the market is pricing this risk so actively shows it isn't ruling out a break of 1.1300, even if only fleeting.
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)