• USD/JPY rallied almost to 2022's 125.10 EBS pandemic peak

• That high and 2015's 19-yr peak at 125.86 remain in the frame

• Prices quite O/B, specs heavily long, so 125.86 is pivotal nL2N2W61BB

• Move powered by soaring Tsy-JGB yields on Fed-BOJ policy divergence

• Tues and Thur's US CPI and retail sales next inputs for Fed hawks

• CPI overall & core f/c at 8.3% and 6.6% y/y vs 7.9% and 6.4% last

• Market's pricing in another 120 bps of Fed hikes by year-end

• BOJ policy rate stuck at -0.1%, YCC being reinforced

• USD/JPY downtrend from 1971 float being reversed, 125.86 next pivot

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