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Mar 18 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - May Continue To Frustrate The Many Betting It Rises

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 18 - 04:10 AM
  • Traders added $3 billion to net long position - now $10bln - since mid-Feb

  • EUR/USD rallied 1.0695-1.0980 Feb 14 and March 8 - falls to 1.0872 Mar 18

  • Drop occurred after rally became stretched above peak 20-day Bollinger bands

  • Low is close to 1.0871 target for minor (38.2%) correction of Feb-Mar gains

  • 20-DMA at 1.0871 recently crossed above 55-DMA 1.0859 - bullish

  • Rate differentials already weighing EUR/USD expected to grow in favour USD

  • ECB depo seen falling 85 bps vs 75bps for U.S. int rate

  • Drop in volatility may see EUR/USD trapped for longer

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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