Goldman Sachs changes its RBA rate call.

"In a fireside chat at Citi's ANZ Investment Conference this morning, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivered remarks we view as clearly hawkish. We now expect the RBA to hike by 25bp to 4.85% at its November meeting (previously on hold at 4.60%)," GS notes.

"Last week, we viewed then pricing in financial markets as significantly underestimating the risk of a November rate hike (15% probability vs. GS: 35% probability). Today’s remarks suggest the RBA continues to see risks to inflation and inflation expectations as tilted to the upside even with the delivered 100bp tightening year-to-date and in our view - absent a downside surprise in the 3Q2026 CPI report (due 28 Oct) - make a further hike in November more likely than not. Beyond this, our base case is that the RBA holds the policy rate at 4.85% until a gradual easing cycle begins in 2H2027," GS adds.